China's New Hydrogen Bomb Aims To Shock And Awe Taiwan

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Russia's use of its TOS-1 thermobaric rocket launcher in Ukraine offers a glimpse into how China could employ its new bomb in Taiwan, using overwhelming blasts to destroy infantry in buildings, starve occupants of oxygen and inflict devastating internal injuries.

In a June 2024 article for The National Interest (TNI), Peter Suciu mentions that Russia's urban warfare tactics using the TOS-1 appeared to emphasize that the best way to take out infantry in buildings is to prevent them from getting out, and that those who get out are too severely injured to continue fighting.

China may face a similar situation in Taiwan should an invasion of the latter bog down into an urban war of attrition. In the 2022 book Crossing the Strait, Sale Lilly mentions that China's urban warfare tactics are guided by the principle of“killing rats in a porcelain shop,” emphasizing the brutality of such operations while exercising caution to prevent the destruction of cities.

Further, Lilly points out that besides the height of Taipei's skyscrapers, the city's underground infrastructure, including parking garages, shopping centers and subway stations, dramatically expands the area available for urban warfare.

Such infrastructure may play a vital role in Taiwan's attritional defense. E Sean Rooney and other writers mention in an October 2024 Proceedings article that if Taiwan were forced to defend itself without the US, its urban environment would provide an ideal defensive environment, as massed fires against urban targets would create more rubble and defensive positions, requiring China to hold both aboveground and underground layers in a laborious advance.

Rooney and others also say that China using mass fires against urban areas could generate an international backlash and turn international popular opinion against it.

While thermobaric weapons could be effective in such an environment, they could also cause massive collateral damage. However, as China claims its new bomb has a controllable chain reaction and a weaker blast force than TNT, it hints at the weapon's power being scalable to address such concerns.

Alternatively, China may also take a page from the US“shock-and-awe” tactics in Afghanistan, using its new bomb as a psychological weapon.

Michael Schmitt and Peter Barker mention in an April 2017 Just Security article that the US Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB) weapon, originally designed to be used against large troop formations or hardened aboveground bunkers, was thought to have a potent effect on Islamic State (IS) morale due to its reported 1.6-kilometer blast and the fact its detonation creates a mushroom cloud similar to a nuclear weapon.

Schmitt and Barker note that the MOAB was effective against IS cave and tunnel networks, with the pressure wave killing or injuring the occupants and collapsing the system.

They say that the MOAB could cause an adversary to abandon certain operations, such as underground warfare, forcing them to expose themselves. Additionally, they mention that such a potent weapon sends a powerful message to adversaries, signaling resolve and other strategic messaging.

In the case of China and Taiwan, Afghanistan's cave and tunnel networks may not be too dissimilar from Taiwan's underground defenses. A MOAB-type weapon - leveraging sustained blast and thermal effects - could be particularly effective against small frontline strongholds like Kinmen and Matsu.