Lebanon approaches election of new president

(MENAFN) As Lebanon approaches the election of a new president in January, the future of Hezbollah's influence will hinge on a few critical words: "the army, the people, and the resistance." This phrase has long been a key point of contention in Lebanon's political discourse, symbolizing a delicate balance between those advocating for the Lebanese state's monopoly on the use of force and Hezbollah’s insistence on legitimizing its weaponry as part of a broader national defense strategy. Over the years, Hezbollah has resisted calls for a consensus on this strategy, as it seeks to preserve its armed resistance. However, Hezbollah’s position has weakened significantly. Following setbacks in its conflict with Israel and the loss of its strategic foothold in Syria after the fall of the Assad regime, Hezbollah's ability to assert its will over Lebanese society has diminished. While it still holds on to its weapons, its influence is no longer as potent, and the party no longer enjoys the same level of support across Lebanon's sectarian communities.

The group’s new leader, Naim Qassem, has worked to present an image of resilience, claiming that Hezbollah is recovering from its wounds and that "the resistance continues." However, many Lebanese view the party's defensive posture with skepticism, especially given Hezbollah's inability to deter Israel's military actions, which continue in southern Lebanon. Once a new president is elected, the government will face the challenge of drafting its ministerial statement. A major hurdle will be whether to include the controversial formula of "army, people, and resistance." It is widely expected that some political factions, particularly the Lebanese Forces and many Sunni leaders, will reject the formula. With the rise of Sunni political momentum after the fall of the Assad regime, many are less inclined to support Hezbollah’s dominant role.

If Hezbollah faces this rejection, it may attempt to pressure the government by threatening to withdraw or by calling for a boycott. However, such actions could isolate the Shiite community even further, especially if Hezbollah's ally, Speaker Nabih Berri, does not support its stance. Berri’s position is weakened by both domestic criticism and international pressure, particularly from the U.S. Congress. Ultimately, Hezbollah’s options appear limited. A boycott could lead to an ongoing crisis, but one that Hezbollah can ill afford, given the growing internal and external pressures on the Shiite community. In the end, the party may struggle to maintain its leverage as Lebanon navigates its complex political landscape.

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