What Next For US In Post-Assad Syria?

In 2013, the US began providing arms to some of the rebel groups that were resisting the Assad government. That year, the Syrian military also crossed a“red line” that had been set by then-President Barack Obama by using chemical weapons against civilians . Despite pressure to enforce the red line , Obama opted not to intervene once Assad agreed to destroy Syria's chemical weapons – a commitment that Assad did not fully live up to .

In 2014, the Islamic State group, often known as ISIS or IS, took over parts of Syria . The US deployed forces directly to fight IS in 2015 . By 2019, the US had severely weakened IS, and the US scaled back its presence. The US never accepted the Assad government's legitimacy, but it did become largely resigned to Assad's rule.

The US has remained involved in Syria in several ways. First, it has about 900 troops deployed in some remote parts of Syria to prevent ISIS from regrouping.

Second, the US has given more than US$1 billion in military assistance to more moderate armed groups that resisted control by the Assad government . Much of this aid has gone to the Syrian Democratic Forces, a military force led by the Kurds, a minority ethnic group that controls northeast Syria and has worked closely with the US on fighting ISIS while maintaining its opposition to Assad.

Third, the US has kept heavy financial sanctions in place against the Syrian government dating back to 2011. And fourth, the US has been providing humanitarian aid for Syrians suffering from the country's 13-year civil war.

The US did not play a direct role in the recent toppling of the Syrian government. The Syrian rebel groups that overthrew Assad are mainly backed by Turkey , which seeks to weaken the Syrian branch of another Kurdish group called the Kurdistan Workers' Party . Turkey views this group as a threat to control over its own Kurdish population.

The US is not yet making any firm judgments about whether this change is going to be good for the US. Overall, Assad's fall opens the possibility of improved relations between the US and Syria, but that will depend, in large part, on the new leadership in Syria.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham , or HTS, the group that led the overthrow of Assad, has ruled in an authoritative manner in the area of Syria it has already been controlling .

ISIS also represents a continuing concern for the US. The US has carried out a series of strikes on ISIS targets in recent days in an effort to prevent ISIS from gaining ground following the collapse of the Assad government.

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People gather with rebel fighters on Umayyad Square in Damascus, Syria, on Dec. 10, 2024. Nael Chahine / Middle East Images /AFP via Getty Images via The ConversationWhat does Trump's election mean for the US engagement in Syria?

Trump has taken the position that Syria is a mess and that it is not America's problem . During his first term, Trump wanted to pull out all of the remaining US troops from Syria , and his advisers persuaded him to keep a small number of troops there . Whether Syria's new leaders act in an authoritarian manner likely won't matter to Trump.

But Trump is strongly pro-Israel, and he will likely not have any problem with Israel carrying out strikes in Syria.

Under Trump, the US will probably not be a major player shaping events in Syria, but I think it is in the nation's interest to remain engaged because what happens in Syria does affect the rest of the Middle East – and, by extension, the US.

Jordan Tama is provost associate professor, American University School of International Service

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article .

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