Why Did Bashar-Al-Assad Fall? What Is The Likely Impact On Syria And The Region?

Colombo, December 8: Bashar Al-Assad, the ruthless ruler of Syria since 2000, fled from his country on Sunday after his iron-clad security and Political structures fell like a house of cards in the face of an unexpectedly strong rebel offensive.

The Syrian Emergency Task Force, an opposition group, said on X that“the Assad regime, Russia and Iran, have been officially defeated in Syria by the Syrian people.”

The exact whereabouts of Bashar are in the realm of speculation. All that is confirmed is that he had left Syria.

Bashar Assad's 24-year rule was marked by suppression of all dissent. A student of ophthalmology in the UK, young Bashar was only 34 when he came to Syria to take charge after his father and dictator Hafez al Assad's death in 2000.

Ruthless Hafez al Assad had killed 20,000 people in the city of Hama in 1982 to crush an uprising by the Muslim Brotherhood, a radical Islamist group based in Egypt. But young, foreign-educated Bashar, was expected to be moderate and true to his Baath Party's socialistic ideals. Indeed, Bashar started off well, doing some
good to the people of Syria.

But come the“Arab Spring”, a series of public uprisings, in 2011, Bashar was caught on the wrong foot. He did not know any other way of fighting it than using brute force like his father. This touched off a civil war, which never ended. The US and the UN blamed Assad for a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 1,000 people in 2013.

Millions of Syrians fled from the country, mostly to Europe. Millions more were displaced within Syria. Overall, 50% of Syria's 23 million people had fled from their homes. Syrian refugees become a major problem to host countries in Europe.

However, Bashar had two steadfast friends in the world – Russia and Iran. These two helped him fight the rebels. Russia gave air support from a base it had in Syria. Iran gave military advice and weapons.
The Lebanon-based Hizbullah, an ally of Iran, gave volunteers.

Surprisingly, even the US helped Bashar, albeit indirectly, by fighting the redoubtable ISIS and Al Queda in parts of Syria. The US had also stationed troops to support the Kurds who were fighting Iraqi Sunnis demanding a separate Kurdistan.

However, despite all the help in men and material, Bashar was not able to hold on to most of rural Syria. He only controlled the cities.

When Assad's allies were preoccupied - Russia with Ukraine, and Iran with Israel, the rebels struck hard. In November, luck ran out for Bashar. The rebels suddenly and unexpectedly launched a surprise offensive on November 27. From then on there was no looking back for the rebels. Bashar could not stand the onslaught. He packed up and left Damascus.

Post Bashar Scenario

Intense factionalism among the rebels and the rise of Islamic radical groups represent the domestic threat to post-Bashar Syria. In the international sphere, Syria's stand offs with Iran and Russia are likely. Relations with the US will be uncertain. If there is net gainer, it will be Israel.

With Bashar gone, power is expected to go into the hands of a rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). This HTS was previously linked to al-Qaeda, but had cut its ties with it in 2016. Since then HTS has been portraying itself as a moderate organization. But to the US, the HTS is still terrorist group, another Al-Qaida in a different dress.

Even if the HTS takes charge, there are far too many and diverse groups in the political arena which will compete for power. They may all be Muslims and mostly Sunni too, but factionalism has been endemic in these groups and that is likely to continue. Therefore peace and orderly development may still be a far cry.

A section is clearly Jehadist, following the ISIS or Al Qaeda. The Syrian National Army is secular but it is also split into factions. Kurdish groups control territory in north eastern Syria, bordering Turkiye in the north and Iraq in the east. They continue to receive support from the US which has military bases in the area. The Kurds are ranged against Turkiye but Turkiye is a member of NATO.

Then there are Alawite forces. The Alwite are a sect in Islam to which the Assads belonged. The Alwite are a minority in Syria being only 10% of the population which more 80% Sunni.
The Alwite forces are in the coast areas of Western Syria. They have good ties with Iran, Iraq and Lebanon's Hezbollah.

Alwite groups have been defeated in the latest offensive, but could regroup and try to come back because there is no unifying force or personality in Syria after the Assads to prevent either factionalism within groups or fighting between groups.

With Bashar gone, Iran's military supply lines to Hezbollah in Lebanon will be severed, weakening that group. Iran too will be considerably weakened in the West Asian arena.

The only gainer will be Israel, with Iran and Hezbulla weakened. Israel may be expected to continue its belligerence towards Iran and the Hamas in Gaza.

Refugee flows, cross-border violence and sectarian tensions are likely to escalate due to the expected confusion in Syria. Turkey is already hosting more than 3 million Syrian refugees. It will like to send them back. But will they be able to return?

Thus, the future of Syria and the Middle East does not look good. Bashar's going will bring relief, but only partially and temporarily.

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