Brazil’S Financial Morning Call For October 4, 2024

(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Today's economic agenda features several key events that could significantly impact Brazil's financial markets and economic outlook.

Brazil's trade balance data for September will be released at 3:00 PM. This report is crucial as it provides insights into Brazil's export and import performance, which can affect the country's economic growth and currency valuation.

Internationally, Mexico will release its unemployment rate for August at 9:00 AM, offering a glimpse into the labor market conditions of a major Latin American economy.

In the United States, the highly anticipated employment report for September will be released at 9:30 AM, including the unemployment rate and job creation figures. This data is critical as it influences Federal Reserve policy decisions and global market sentiment.

These events are significant as they provide a comprehensive view of Brazil's trade performance, regional economic conditions, and the health of the world's largest economy, all of which can influence investor sentiment and market movements in Brazil.


Economic Agenda, Friday, October 4
Brazil

• 3:00 PM: Trade balance (Sep)
  

Mexico

• 9:00 AM: Unemployment rate (Aug)
  

United States

• 9:30 AM: Unemployment rate (Sep)
  
• 9:30 AM: Employment report – Job creation
  

Brazilian Markets on Thursday
The Brazilian stock market faced a setback as October began. The Ibovespa index dropped 1.38%, closing at 131,671.51 points. This decline of 1,843.43 points marked the index's largest retreat in two weeks.

The commercial dolla also felt the impact, rising 0.54% to R$ 5.47. It even reached R$ 5.51 at its peak during the day. The initial excitement over Brazil's credit rating upgrade by Moody's quickly faded.

Investors remained concerned about public finances, particularly the creation of permanent expenses with temporary revenues. Analysts believe Brazil is missing a golden opportunity due to fiscal issues.

The market continues to demand higher premiums for investing in the country. The central government reported a primary deficit of R$ 22.404 billion in August.
U.S. Markets on Thursday
U.S. stocks closed higher on Thursday as investors reacted to stronger-than-expected private sector job gains and anticipated further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in November.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1% to close at 42,196.52. The tech-heavy Nasda Composite advanced 0.1% to 17,925.12. The S&P 500 gained 0.01% to end at 5,709.54.
Commodities Update
Oil prices surged 5% amid Middle East tensions and U.S. economic resilience. Gold prices also rose due to Middle East tensions and expectations of Fed rate cuts.
Currency Flow and Industrial Production
Brazil's currency flow maintains a positive balance of $6.182 billion in 2024 as of September 27. The financial channel experienced a net outflow of $51.939 billion this year, while the foreign trade balance stands at a surplus of $58.121 billion.
Corporate News
Several Brazilian companies made significant moves:

• Vale diversifies its portfolio with a new critical minerals fund
  
• Gerdau cuts its investment pla as the steel market shifts
  
• Brazil's state-owned Caixa expands into real estate investment banking
  
• Moody's raises ratings of 23 financial institutions in Brazil
  

Brazil's new vehicle sales soared to a decade high in September, indicating strong consumer demand.
Underlying Sentiment
Investors are closely monitoring Brazil's fiscal situation , with particular focus on the growing budget deficit.

The government reported a primary deficit of R$22.404 billion ($4.07 billion) in August 2024, bringing the accumulated deficit for the year to R$99.383 billion ($18.07 billion).

This figure, nearing R$100 billion ($18.18 billion), is a significant concern for market participants and policymakers.

The government's economic team estimates a deficit of R$28.3 billion ($5.15 billion) for 2024, while financial market agents expect a public accounts deficit of 0.6% of GDP.

This discrepancy is creating uncertainty in the financial markets, reflected in the recent stock market decline and rising dollar value against the real.

The 12-month accumulated deficit of R$1.11 trillion ($201.82 billion) for the consolidated public sector further underscores Brazil's fiscal challenges.

These issues are likely to continue influencing investor sentiment and market performance as the government struggles to balance its budget while maintaining economic growth.

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