Mortgages Account For Nearly Three Quarters Of Canadian Debt As Consumers Hold Out For Reduced Interest Rate Relief

• Canadian household debt hits a record high $2.41 trillion, with mortgage debt making up 74% of the total outstanding balances.
• More Canadians face payment stress as consumption demand grows.
• Percentage of consumers missing payments for 90 or more days continued to rise, up 22 bps year-over-year to 1.74% as higher living costs combined with higher interest rates put more pressure on vulnerable consumer segments.
  

TORONTO, Aug. 27, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Canada's total credit debt grew by 3.2% year-over-year (YoY) to a record $2.41 trillion during the first quarter of the year, according to TransUnion Canada's Q2 2024 Credit Industry Insights Report , which is produced quarterly to map consumer credit market trends and health. Mortgage debt, comprising 74% of total debt, remains relatively healthy, underpinned by strong credit quality among mortgage holders and rising home values. Non-mortgage debt, including credit cards, loans, and lines of credit, continues to rise, reflective of higher consumption needs for Canadian consumers.

The TransUnion Credit Industry Indicator (CII) dropped slightly by one point from prior year to 104.5, due to a slowdown in credit supply coupled with a rise in delinquency rates, somewhat offset by higher balances and strong demand for credit.

Credit access – the overall number of credit-active consumers – is a key driver of this growth, up by 3.7% from prior year. As of Q2 2024, there are 32 million Canadians with at least one active credit product in their wallets, which represents approximately 92% of adult credit eligible Canadians. Younger Canadians are driving the bulk of increased participation, with Millennials (born 1980 to 1994) and Gen Z (born 1995 to 2010) driving $98 billion in growth of outstanding balances year-over-year. Gen Z consumers continue to be the fastest growing segment as more consumers from this group are becoming of credit-eligible age (18+) each year and entering the credit market for the very first time.

New credit openings grew YoY 10.4% (representing $77.9 billion in balances), driven by credit cards, with new credit card balances1 growing 7.5%. This is partly because of the continued influx of Gen Z consumers into the credit market, who typically open a credit card as their first credit product. New mortgage originations stalled, driving an increase in real estate supply, as elevated interest rates continue to leave some buyers on the sidelines.

More Consumers Face Payment Stress
Average balances for major products held by Canadian consumers continued to grow during Q2 2024, with auto loan balances showing the highest growth (6.2% YoY) driven by higher ticket prices. In Q2 2024, average balances for credit cards grew 4.7% YoY, and installment loan and mortgage average balances grew 4.4% and 3.1%, respectively.

The growth in average credit card balances was primarily driven by consumers spending more on their credit cards, while paying down less on their monthly due payments. This indicates that specific segments of Canadians may be experiencing cash flow challenges while being increasingly reliant on credit cards. The number of Canadians only making minimum payments on their credit cards increased six basis points (bps) YoY to 1.2% of all credit card holders.

Higher outstanding balances combined with the higher cost of debt may have reduced financial flexibility for some consumers, making them more vulnerable to reduced disposable income, or the capacity to meet unexpected expenses. Increases in minimum payment due amounts were observed to have the largest impact to mortgages (13.5% YoY), followed by credit cards (10.6% YoY) and personal loans (10.5% YoY), with the growth in payment due amounts seen across all risk tiers2.

“If the Bank of Canada continues to reduce interest rates, payment pressures may ease; however, lenders need to carefully monitor consumer behaviours, and predict and identify resilient versus vulnerable borrowers. Our analysis shows that a 50 bps decrease in mortgage interest rates from current levels could reduce mortgage payments by 12% or more for new or renewable mortgages openings in the coming months and help reduce the number of Canadians that are unable to make their monthly payment,” said Matthew Fabian, director of financial services research and consulting at TransUnion Canada.

Delinquencies Continue to Rise as the Cost of Living Pressure Mounts
Overall serious consumer-level delinquency rates (90 or more days past due on payments on any account) continued to rise, up 22 bps YoY to 1.74%, as the pressures of higher cost of living combined with high interest rates have impacted vulnerable consumer segments.

This phenomenon is especially evident among subprime borrowers, with serious delinquency among this group rising 131 bps to 15.7%. Some consumers with lower credit scores are struggling to keep up with their payments in the current economic climate.

Albertans had the highest serious delinquency observed in Canada at 2.18%. This is followed by consumers in Manitoba (2.03%) and New Brunswick (2.03%). Alberta also saw the highest YoY rise in delinquency, at 30 bps YoY, followed by Ontario.

In addition to rising delinquencies, consumers are progressing from early stages (30 days past due payments) into later stages (90 days past due payments) of delinquency at a higher rate. A higher percentage of delinquent consumers moved or rolled forward from early stage to later stage of delinquencies – 12% in Q2 2024, compared to a 7% roll forward rate a year ago. Across products, when borrowers fail to make payments on balances and move into later stages of delinquency, the impacts can include increased interest charges, fees and penalties, along with reduction to credit scores.

“During these times of uncertainties, lenders need to monitor and predict portfolio health indicators by leveraging holistic consumer attributes. Our recent research studies have shown that by incorporating consumer-level trended data, we can help predict resilient consumers to drive smart growth, identify early warning signs of vulnerability to mitigate risk, and prioritize collection resources effectively to predict repayments. The Canadian credit economy would benefit from enabling consumers to continue leveraging credit for responsible behaviours,” said Fabian.

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1 New balances are defined as the sum of outstanding balances from credit cards that have opened within the quarter (Q1 2024)

2 According to TransUnion CreditVision® risk score: Subprime = 300-639; Near prime = 640-719; Prime = 720-759; Prime plus = 760-799; Super prime = 800+

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