Review of U.S. employment data could reveal greater economic weakness

(MENAFN) Economists from several leading U.S. banks predict significant downward revisions to the employment data for the year ending in March, potentially adjusting the figures by up to 1 million jobs. This anticipated revision could indicate that the economic softness in the U.S. began earlier than initially observed through April, posing a substantial challenge for the Federal Reserve as it considers monetary policy adjustments. Experts from Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo estimate that the annual jobs data for March 2024 could be revised downward by at least 600,000 jobs. In contrast, JP Morgan anticipates a reduction of about 360,000 jobs, while Goldman Sachs foresees a more substantial adjustment of up to 1 million jobs.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics conducts an annual review of employment data reported in March, using the more accurate Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages to finalize these figures. This review process, which results in updated data released early the following year, could reveal deeper-than-expected weaknesses in the labor market. Such revisions would complicate the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding monetary easing, as policymakers grapple with the implications of a potentially weaker job market on their economic strategies. 

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