UK Pulls The Throttle On Tempest Next-Gen Fighter

Nikkei says that despite recent concerns over potential cost overruns and a defense review by the new UK government under Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the parties established a coordinating body to oversee the program's progress.

The source mentions that the meeting follows a bilateral agreement between Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Starmer to continue collaboration on the project.

It notes that the defense pact, which includes provisions for Japan's Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) to protect UK military assets in noncombat situations, underscores the deepening security ties among the three nations in response to China's growing influence and Russia's ongoing aggression in Ukraine.

For multiple reasons, the UK decided to pursue an independent sixth-gen fighter program despite close defense relations and sharing of sensitive technologies with the US, including being the sole Tier One partner in the US F-35 program and nuclear propulsion under the AUKUS framework.

In a May 2024 article for the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), Trevor Taylor and Isabella Antinozzi mention that the UK's pursuit of the GCAP underlies the UK's need to develop a notable defense industrial and technological capability, with the benefits it can bring to the UK economy.

Furthermore, Taylor and Antinozzi say that the UK's commitment to the GCAP program shows a need to maintain operational autonomy, requiring a sustainable and modifiable system in the UK.

Most importantly, they mention that the threat environment beyond 2040 requires a significant capability upgrade from fifth-gen fighters such as the F-22 and F-35, with multiple sixth-gen fighter projects such as the US Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) and French-German-Spanish Système de Combat Aérien du Futur (SCAF) programs.

However, Defense One notes this month that the GCAP's unveiling comes amid uncertainty about the program and Western sixth-gen fighter jets in general. Defense One says that a UK official declined to commit to the program as the new UK government undergoes its“strategic defense review,” focusing on a near-term war in Europe against Russia.

In contrast to the GCAP's progress, the source mentions that US Air Force officials have questioned the financial feasibility of the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program.

Asia Times reported in June 2024 that the NGAD program is potentially facing a cost-death spiral. The US Air Force is considering changes to the NGAD program as it grapples with budget constraints, cost overruns, technological challenges and fast-evolving concepts of air dominance.

US Air Force Chief of Staff General David Allvin and Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall have both hesitated to continue the NGAD program. While a winner between Lockheed Martin and Boeing is expected to be announced this year, Allvin has emphasized that no final decision has been made.

The NGAD program's slow progress is partly due to delays in Lockheed Martin's F-35 program and Boeing's unsatisfactory defense performance. Boeing's management problems and the lack of cost-effective execution incentives at Lockheed Martin are also contributing factors.

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The high cost of NGAD, at an estimated US$300 million per unit, poses a challenge for the US Air Force. This cost is in addition to the funding required for the F-35, B-21 Raider and Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) programs.

To save the NGAD program, Kendall said that the fighter could end up with a less complex, smaller engine to bring down costs, as reported by Defense News this month.

Defense News says the NGAD will use adaptive engine technology to switch to the most efficient configuration as flying conditions change. However, the source points out that the high cost of the technology thwarted earlier plans to use it in the F-35.

In line with reducing costs, Kendall says that the US Air Force is examining the NGAD concept to determine whether it is the right one and whether it can do something less expensive and accept some trade-offs for lower costs, as stated by Defense News.

However, despite the effort and cost of getting sixth-gen fighter projects off the ground, they might not be the best solution for the evolving aerial threat environment.

This month, The War Zone reported that the US Air Force is reevaluating the NGAD combat jet, potentially shifting to an uncrewed platform due to budget constraints.

The War Zone notes that NGAD's future is uncertain amid an 81% cost surge for the Sentinel ICBM program, now at $141 billion.

Kendall emphasized the need for a prudent review before committing to the NGAD's engineering phase, considering affordability and design suitability.

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