New China Algorithm Puts US Warships In Clearer View

At the same time, SCMP points out that the technique has constraints, such as limitations with fast-moving targets and under strong winds and waves. It says the researchers emphasize the need for further testing and refinement with actual data to improve accuracy.

That advancement follows a string of China's innovations in space-based intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR). In May 2024, Asia Times reported that China's Taijing-4 03 radar imaging satellite has captured detailed images of the US Navy's critical Naval Station Norfolk.

The photos revealed three US aircraft carriers, two warships and four unidentified vessels. The satellite has advanced surveillance technologies such as synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and AI processors for rapid target detection and identification.

Further, China has equipped its Jilin-1 commercial Earth observation satellite with AI, enabling it to achieve a 95% precision rate in identifying small objects, seven times greater than its previous technology.

The AI can reportedly track moving objects even if they turn sharply or disappear into a tunnel. By 2025, China plans to launch the entire constellation of 138 Jilin-1 satellites in orbit.

In addition, a Chinese AI-powered satellite detected and tracked the USS Harry S Truman aircraft carrier during a state transit drill off Long Island, New York's coast, providing China with real-time coordinates of the carrier's location.

The satellite's AI could rapidly process high-definition images, identifying military assets with minimal computational resources. Chinese scientists have also made breakthroughs in AI“weight reduction” and chip resilience despite limitations in space, including processing power and harsh conditions.

In a January 2024 article for the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Clayton Swope explains why China prioritizes investing in space-based imagery and observation capabilities.

Swope says such investments allow China to effectively monitor the Indo-Pacific region in real-time, aiming to address threats to its security and freedom of movement.

He says that China's pairing of legacy and new geosynchronous space-based optical surveillance capabilities will improve the identification and tracking of US and allied naval forces in the Indo-Pacific.

Swope also mentions that enhanced resolution may enable China to detect smaller objects, including ships and airborne assets such as fighter aircraft and bombers, as stealth technology is less effective against optical sensors.

These capabilities show that China can now scan large ocean areas to automatically spot and recognize ships, deliver real-time targeting information to missile launch sites and effectively enhance its ability to attack carriers and destroy combat aircraft on the ground in a pre-emptive strike.

In February 2023, Asia Times noted that these developments challenge carriers' relevance. On the one hand, carriers serve as mobile airbases, operating outside anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) bubbles.

They are more survivable than static land-based airbases. They also serve as status symbols for leading maritime powers.

On the other hand, the vulnerability of large surface warships to advanced anti-ship missiles, as demonstrated by the February 2022 sinking of the Russian cruiser Moskva, seemingly validates China's strategy to counter US naval supremacy in the Pacific.

Chinese naval planners aim to exploit the vulnerability of US aircraft carriers with pre-emptive strikes using sophisticated anti-ship ballistic missiles such as the DF-21D and DF-26B.

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Such developments may force a fundamental change in naval doctrine, removing the carrier from its role as the capital ship of today's navies. Defense planners and politicians may question funding these multibillion-dollar warships if they serve limited roles and are perceived as too valuable to risk.

While the US is considering fielding more“lightning carriers,” smaller carriers with a lighter aircraft load, the ships may share the same vulnerabilities as their larger counterparts while their small air wings limit their combat capabilities.

Further, SCMP reported this month that China has simulated attacks on US military assets, including fighter jets and aircraft carriers in the Xinjiang desert.

SCMP shows satellite imagery of 20 jet replicas resembling US stealth fighters and a model aircraft carrier having signs of significant damage, possibly from practice missile and air attacks.

The report says that the exercises are part of China's strategy to counter US naval power projection, particularly in scenarios involving the South China Sea or Taiwan.

SCMP notes that these exercises may also indicate practice for long-range strikes on strategic locations such as Guam, Alaska and Hawaii to destroy US airpower on the ground preemptively and may improve China's precision in striking moving targets at sea and land-based facilities like airfields.

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