Israel's Hezbollah War Threat Hurts Biden More Than Trump

Latest stories

Indonesia at forefront of Asia's AI hopes and fears

US-China in a new, intense tug-of-war for Cambodia

Rise of the far right is a 4th dimension phenomenon

Biden has faced political pressure to arm Israel and public condemnation of the way he has dealt with protests on university campuses. There has been further pressure on him after allegations that Israel was committing genocide were filed with the International Court of Justice. In short, it's the sort of situation that no president wants.

Tension in the Middle East along Israel's border with Lebanon.

The tension between Israel and Hezbollah will not be seen as an isolated incident but will play into deeper concerns about Israeli foreign policy and where the US should stand.

The situation will inevitably be considered part of a wider US debate on the Israel-Palestine conflict, with all the emotions and political difficulties that come with this and is likely to be a source of contention at the upcoming presidential debate on June 27 .

The US is already working to maintain peace between Israel and Hezbollah and to bring about a diplomatic solution in the form of a ceasefire proposal. Critics who want increased US support for Israel will be upset with peace negotiations which they say favor Hezbollah – and, with it, Iran.

But if Biden goes beyond trying for a peace deal – for example, by providing more military aid to Israel – he can forget the votes of those who would prefer a more hardline American stance towards the Netanyahu government.

Even if Biden gets a peace deal, or Israel doesn't move to all-out war, the situation will still undermine Biden's electoral chances, because it can't be separated from the wider disputes around Israel that are already losing him support in some quarters.

Damaged relationships

Biden's response will also be extremely difficult for his relations with the Democratic party. The party is already deeply divided over Israel and this new threat will only exacerbate that division.

The last thing candidates need before an election is to not have the full support of their party. The Israel-Hezbollah conflict has the potential to inflame internal political disputes between the Democrats even further and Biden will be going into the election with one hand tied behind his back.

This isn't just a domestic question, however, but an international one. Israel is one of the most important issues on the international political agenda right now. The criticisms against Biden don't just come from US voters but from other states.

If Biden can't win those states over to whatever he does next in relation to Israel and Hezbollah, he will look incompetent and unreliable. And if he can't convince other national leaders that he is up to the job, he won't convince US voters either.

The problems that Biden now has to address over Hezbollah will also be problematic for his electoral competition with Donald Trump. The Republican party is also split on Israel . But the situation would hurt Trump in the election to a lesser degree. In fact, it may even be a win for Trump.