USD / CAD - Canadian Dollar Treading Water

1905-06-14 12:00:00

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USD / CAD - Canadian Dollar treading water

- US PPI and Retail Sales data in focus.
- Oil inches higher on increased demand forecast.
- US dollar retreats modestly in uneventful session.
USDCAD: open 1.3464-68, overnight range 1.3463-1.3483, close 1.3472, WTI $80.30, Gold, $2169.98.
The Canadian dollar drifted higher in another quiet overnight session. Traders are hoping that today's US data will provide a clearer picture for the US interest rate outlook. It won't.
If the forecasts are correct, US PPI data (forecast 1.1% y/y vs. January 0.9% and Core-PPI forecast 1.9% y/y vs. 2.0%) will give another mixed inflation outlook and do nothing to encourage the Fed to change its outlook for the timing of rate cuts. The Retail Sales data will likely be ignored because the rebound is from the January results that were distorted. Initial Jobless claims (forecast 218,000) will have little impact unless the results are sharply higher or lower from the estimate.
The Canadian dollar managed a bit of support after the International Energy Agency in Europe tweaked its forecast for 2024 crude demand.
The IEA are forecasting crude demand will rise by 1,1 million barrels/day, which is an increase of 110,000 b/d from their earlier prediction said the increase was because of higher ocean ship fuel demand as those ships are avoiding the Red Sea and taking the long way around. They also expect higher US demand.
EURUSD traded narrowly in a 1.0932-1.0955 range. Prices were weighed down by dovish comments by ECB Governing Council Member Yannis Stournaras. He said, "We need to start cutting rates soon so that our monetary policy does not become too restrictive. It is appropriate to do two rate cuts before the summer break, and four moves throughout the year seem reasonable. Insofar, I concur with the markets' expectations.”
GBPUSD is a tad firmer, trading in a 1.2787-1.2823 range. Prices may be getting a bit of support from a report by Pantheon Macroeconomics that says UK Q1 growth will be 0.3% q/q as the UK recovery from recession gains steam.
USDJPY shuffled in a 147.53-147.96 range with prices underpinned by elevated Treasury yields. The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.204% today, from 4.131% yesterday.
AUDUSD traded quietly in a 0.6610-32 band with traders content to await US Retail Sales and PPI data.
Canada Manufacturing Sales are expected to rebound to 0.4% m/m from December's drop of 0.7%.

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