ASEAN Stands Idly By, As Usual, On South China Sea

Washington will unavoidably consider an intervention such as US Navy or Coast Guard vessels escorting Philippine supply ships, or perhaps even standing guard while the Philippines builds a permanent outpost to replace the decaying ship. This could bring US and PRC ships into confrontation with each other, with the potential for further escalation.

In contrast, the Taiwan Strait has calmed slightly as an arena of potential US-China military conflict since the latter part of last year.

Taiwan continues to endure hostile Chinese signaling and, more recently, opportunistic Chinese encroachment into the waters around Taipei-controlled Kinmen island. But Beijing's reaction to the election of Democratic Progressive Party candidate Lai Ching-te as Taiwan's incoming president was moderate.

Beijing's Taiwan policy will be mostly on auto-pilot through late May as the Chinese government waits to hear what Lai says in his inauguration speech.

ASEAN could help prevent a conflict over the Second Thomas Shoal by unitedly condemning China's aggressive attempts to enforce its excessive territorial claims. This would be a reasonable position to take.

Twelve years ago, ASEAN and the Chinese government agreed to a Declaration on the Conduct of the Parties in the South China Sea, which obligates rival claimants to“resolve their territorial and jurisdictional disputes by peaceful means, without resorting to the threat or use of force,” and prohibits“activities that would complicate or escalate disputes and affect peace and stability.”

China's actions are clearly non-compliant.

Then, in 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague declared China's expansive nine-dash line claim invalid, giving China no lawful basis for asserting sovereignty over areas within the Philippines' EEZ. Beijing would be much less likely to bully the Philippines if all the other ASEAN members objected.

Sadly, that is not happening. The same week the Chinese Coast Guard was pummeling a Philippine supply boat with a water cannon, Australia hosted a summit of ASEAN leaders. On March 6, the entire group released a statement, called the Melbourne Declaration , that makes only a vague reference to the tensions around the Second Thomas Shoal.

“We continue to closely follow developments in the South China Sea,” it says.“We encourage all countries to avoid any unilateral actions that endanger peace, security and stability in the region.”

Contrary to the wishes of the Philippine delegation, the statement does not mention the 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration. The statement displays boldness of conviction on other issues. It criticizes North Korea for its missile test launches and nuclear tests. It“deplores in the strongest terms the aggression by the Russian Federation against Ukraine.”

And it calls for a cease-fire, increased access for humanitarian aid deliveries and a release of hostages in Gaza. But it gives the Chinese government a pass.

While attending the summit in Australia, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim
summed up
the attitude of some of the ASEAN member states.
“China seems to be the leading investor into Malaysia,” he said.
“We do not have a problem with China.”

But Malaysia does have a problem with China. Beijing claims territory within Malaysia's EEZ, Chinese fishing boats trespass there and patrols by Chinese ships and aircraft frequently annoy the Malaysian government.

This is a structural problem. ASEAN members agree to operate by consensus, meaning in practice every ASEAN member has veto power over every ASEAN action and statement.

Observers have criticized ASEAN for its weakness in addressing not only the South China Sea territorial disputes but also the Myanmar civil war, the Rohingya crisis and the problem of transnational air pollution caused by brush fires. Elites in Southeast Asia are themselves critical of ASEAN; most see it as ineffective, slow and unable to act unitedly.

Sign up for one of our free newsletters

• The Daily Report Start your day right with Asia Times' top stories
• AT Weekly Report A weekly roundup of Asia Times' most-read stories

The relationships that individual ASEAN members have with China vary greatly. At one end of the spectrum is Cambodia, which is nearly a Chinese colony .

At the other end is the Philippines, which in April 2023 opened four new sites for US rotational military access under the two sides' Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA). The Chinese government responded by saying the Philippines is“being used by the US” in“an act that escalates tensions in the region and endangers regional peace and stability.”

This diversity of orientation toward China makes ASEAN almost incapable of taking a firm position in opposition to China on any strategic issue, even though Southeast Asians are sensitive and
averse
to Chinese
domination .

Cambodia
regularly
blocks
proposed ASEAN actions related to the South China Sea that displease Beijing.
A senior retired Singaporean official publicly
suggested
that because Cambodia and Laos are satellites of China, ASEAN might need to expel them to save itself.

Both Beijing and Washington, for what it's worth, voice support for“ASEAN centrality.” ASEAN is clearly useful to China as an obstacle to organized resistance against Beijing's agenda. ASEAN's usefulness to the US is less apparent.

Given the economic importance of China to Anwar's Malaysia and to various other Southeast Asian governments, it is understandable that they generally wish to avoid antagonizing China.

In this case, however, they risk following that strategy so assiduously that they fumble the larger objective of preventing great power conflict from flaring up within their subregion in the South China Sea.

Denny Roy is a senior fellow at the East-West Center, Honolulu.

Already have an account? Sign i Sign up here to comment on Asia Times stories OR

Thank you for registering!

An account was already registered with this email. Please check your inbox for an authentication link.