What Happens The Day After The Gaza War?

There are, broadly speaking, three options for a Gaza post-Hamas. (That is, if it is even possible to uproot Hamas, something many analysts have pointed out is likely to be difficult or impossible.)

The first is a complete reoccupation of Gaza by Israel; the second is the return of the Palestinian Authority to the coastal enclave; and the third is some external political or security administration – perhaps a government with a coalition of Arab states or a UN-run administration.

The option of a complete reoccupation has been touted by more than one Israeli official, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The White House shot it down the very next day.“A reoccupation ... of Gaza is not the right thing to do,” said an official.

That doesn't, however, mean that it is off the table. The war could yet drag on in some form for more than a year, and next year's US election could bring a new, more amenable occupant to the White House.

If the option is to have an Arab or international force next door that won't do its bidding, Israel may well conclude it is better simply to wait out the next year, through endless“security operations,” and see what the US election brings.

The second option is the return of the Palestinian Authority, which appears to be Washington's preference.

But if the Americans are keen on it, the Palestinian Authority is not, at least not on the current terms proposed. The PA governs parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank, and previously Gaza until Hamas seized control in 2007. The PA wants to see political progress before it returns to Gaza.

Simply taking over governing Gaza without any changes to the stifling economic conditions would put the PA in the position of being Israel's and America's police officer – simply enforcing rules that have been decided elsewhere.

For the PA, which wants to win future elections – if they ever materialize – being seen as complicit in a continuing occupation is deeply problematic. Opposition to the return of the PA would also come from the Israeli government, with Netanyahu already voicing his opposition to the PA taking charge of the territory.

That leaves the option of an outside force, either an Arab coalition or something under the auspices of the United Nations. The first can probably be dismissed. Speaking in Manama, Safadi was direct:“There will be no Arab troops going to Gaza. None. We are not going to be seen as the enemy.” It can be presumed Safadi was articulating not merely the position of Jordan, but that of Arab heavyweights like Saudi Arabia.

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That leaves the possibility of a UN force. While that may be palatable to both sides – the Arabs would get their wish not to have to clean up Israel's mess, while Israel would feel at least Palestinians were not in charge – a UN force might prove trickiest of all, because it would require some form of publicly declared mandate.

Which means that, somehow, a vision of what exactly the force is doing there, and why, would need to be explained. And that pushes up against the more vital and most intractable question – what exactly is the political settlement in Gaza?

The reason the Israelis are so focused on the military strategy, and the Americans have resorted to dredging up the almost forgotten two-state solution, is that beyond that, there is no imagined political settlement. There is no vision of what Gaza can become.

It is much easier to focus on a strategy of how to defeat Hamas in Gaza rather than to try to imagine what politics will look like the day after.

This article was provided by Syndication Bureau , which holds copyright.

Faisal Al Yafai is currently writing a book on the Middle East and is a frequent commentator on international TV news networks. He has worked for news outlets such as The Guardian and the BBC, and reported on the Middle East, Eastern Europe, Asia and Africa. Follow him on X @FaisalAlYafai .

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