Significance of Modi's visits to the Maldives and Sri Lanka

Thanks to former President Abdulla Yameen's pro-China policies as also his crackdown on the opposition on the eve of Prime minister Narendra Modi's March 2015 state visit to the Maldives, not only was that visit cancelled at the very last minute but Modi did not visit the Maldives so long as Yameen was in power.

Later, in 2015, a major disruption of India's supplies to Nepal (the Nepalese called it a blockade) saw China stepping in to supply 1.3 million liters of gasoline by sending one hundred tankers to Kathmandu via the Tibet-Nepal border.

Year 2016 saw terror attacks at Pathankot and Uri in India's Jammu and Kashmir province derailing India's relations with Pakistan and making the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) dysfunctional.

The year 2017 saw India hitting the headlines as a result of the ten week-long crisis in Doklam igniting anger and disaffection respectively in China and Bhutan. 2018 ended with the Pulwama suicide attack followed by India's air strikes against Pakistan.

No doubt Modi's hyperactive foreign policy in his first term had its moments of celebration, but the immediate neighborhood continued to be its nemesis. Modi's 'Neighborhood First' policy ceded space to China's ever expanding influence.

But each of these episodes also became watersheds in redefining Modi's 'Neighborhood First' policy making it more pragmatic and also far more assertive and nuanced.

Modi took India's 'Neighborhood First' policy out of its limited bandwidth of competing with China's five times bigger economic prowess and the investments spree under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The last two years saw Modi front-loading India's unique and enduring religious-cultural, ethnic, linguistic people-to-people linkages with neighboring nations.

Last year Modi visited Nepal twice back to back, having roadshows with Prime Minister K P Sharma Oli and worshiping at Hindu temples of Janakpur, Pashupatinath and Muktinath, the last one being close to the Nepal-China border.

Modi was the chief guest at Sri Lanka's 2018 International Vesak festival to mark Buddha's birth, enlightenment and nirvana. This saw him displaying his vision for the twenty-first century. He related Buddhist axioms, cited Buddhist canons in chaste Pali and Sanskrit, worshiped at the famous Seema Malaka temple in Colombo, and engaged in Buddhist discourses with monks in the world famous Temple of the Tooth in Kandy.

Through such engagements he showcased India's advantages over China's profit-driven commercial connections. The new approach is, of course, being complemented by India's increasing resource disbursement to counter China's Belt and Road juggernaut.

Prime Minister Modi's pragmatic approach saw him engaging the Chinese leaders as well. This was aimed at ensuring maximum benefit with minimal cost.

Modi visited China five times in the last five years while President Xi Jinping visited India twice. The Doklam crisis of 2017 was followed by the Modi-Xi informal summit at Wuhan in April 2018. It marked a reset in China-India relations.

Likewise, celebrating India's re-emergence as a factor in the Maldives, Modi was the only foreign leader attending the swearing-in of the Ibrahim Solih government in November last year. President Solih's India visit last December resulted in New Delhi extending US $1.4 billion in aid to cover various projects.

This March, India's Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj became the first foreign leader to visit Male. Accompanied by Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale they fine tuned India's promised aid and assistance.

But nothing has marked Modi's neighborhood policy more than the snubbing of Pakistan and junking SAARC.

Starting from the outreach at the BRICS summit in October 2016, Modi has been promoting BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Multi-Sectoral Initiative for Technical and Economic Cooperation) as his alternate frame for regional cooperation.

At the same time, reinforcing his dictum that 'terror and talks cannot go together' the Modi has not even entertained questions on the possibility of meeting his Pakistani counterpart Imran Khan at next week's Bishkek summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

Indeed, in spite of the Pakistan Prime Minister's repeated public posturing about reviving peace talks including his recent congratulatory phone call to Modi, Imran Khan was not invited to Modi's second swearing-in. This leaves little doubt about Modi's reassertion of India's Neighborhood First policy sans Pakistan.

But coinciding with Modi's second swearing-in, the visit of China's second most powerful leader, Wang Qishan, ensured that Islamabad had some reason for celebration.

Modi rules' second edition is expected to mark a shift from India's immediate neighborhood to an extended neighborhood and from disputed land borders to maritime expanse, making Modi an Indo-Pacific Prime Minister.

Only last month, India reportedly set up an ‘Indo-Pacific Desk' in its Ministry of Foreign affairs. While last time, Bhutan had hosted Modi's first foreign visit, Modi's decision to begin his second term with visit to Sri Lanka and the Maldives after inviting leaders of BIMSTEC, Mauritius and the Kyrgyz Republic to his swearing in, clearly underlines Modi's expanded vision of India's neighbors.

Apart from its geographical connotations, Modi's visit to the Maldives and Sri Lanka also underlines his assertive anti-terror posture that will see him expressing India's solidarity with the victims of Sri Lanka's Easter terror attacks that killed 260 people including eleven Indians.

Modi and Sri Lankan President Maithripala Sirisena will have their second full-fledged formal meeting in as many weeks to re-evaluate ongoing and planned development projects. The Indian Prime Minister is also expected to visit St Anthony's Church, one of the sites of the Easter suicide bombings in Colombo.

The second edition of Modi's 'Neighborhood First' policy will see India's on-the-ground collaboration in countering terror in its periphery. India and Sri Lanka have continued sharing real time information on terror threats. A team from India's National Intelligence Agency is working on the ground in Colombo, rubbing shoulders with their Sri Lankan counterparts as they investigate the various components of the Easter terror attacks and the likelihood of the existence of sleeper cells of the Islamic State.

India-Sri Lanka ties have remained remarkably cordial. In spite of accusations of India's interference in the historic defeat of President Mahinda Rajapaksa by the united opposition in 2015 Presidential election, Modi has hosted all top Sri Lankan leaders and cultivated them.

This explains why India maintained a safe distance during Sri Lanka's internal political upheavals during the last quarter of 2018. The result was visible in the laudatory congratulatory messages that the re-elected Prime Minister Modi received from the Leader of Opposition Mahinda Rajapaksa, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and President Maithripala Sirisena. The latter attended Modi's second swearing-in last week and is hosting Modi in Colombo this weekend.

The same sentiment was visible in the tone and tenor of messages coming from the Maldives President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih and former President Mohammed Nasheed who was recently elected as the Chair of their newly elected Majlis, the national parliament.

Under the stewardship of Mohammed Nasheed all of eighty-seven newly elected members of the national legislature, including the opposition, voted last week on a resolution to invite Prime Minister Modi to address the Majlis. Such a vote is a legal requirement.

His speech at the Majlis may see Modi not just heralding the second edition of his 'Neighbourhod First' policy but also reviving his SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) initiative that has been dormant since it was launched during Modi's last Indian Ocean tour in March 2015.

It will also mention his other pet project, Sagarmala. Sri Lanka has already expressed a desire to become part of Sagarmala. Conceived in the backdrop of the 2005 Tsumami, the Sagarmala included development of India's ports and their hinterland.

As in his Shangrila speech last June outlining India's vision on the Indo-Pacific, Modi's speech at the Maldivian Majlis, and his other interactions in Male and Colombo this weekend, are expected to provide an outline of Modi vision for reclaiming the extended neighborhood from China's ever expanding influence.

Implementing such a vision, of course, has its own pitfalls. For example, Modi has to begin by addressing some persistent irritants like the Teesta River water sharing issue with Bangladesh; fishing trawlers entering the territorial waters of Sri Lanka; and a pro-China left communist alliance in power in Nepal. Even in Bhutan, democratic elections have seen speeches airing discomfort in relations with India.

(Author is Professor, Jawaharlal Nehru University (New Delhi) and senior fellow, Institute for National Security Studies Sri Lanka)

(The featured image at the top shows Indian Prime Minister Modi with BIMSTEC leaders at his swearing-in on May 30, 2019)

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