* Cyprus is past the worst of its brutal recession. Regardless the economy will continue to be challenged by a weak external environment public sector austerity competitive pressures on wages and disposable income and the deleveraging of the banking sector.
* Although the Cypriot government's fiscal consolidation plan will pay dividends in terms of long-term growth it has come at the cost of weakening near-term economic activity.
* Talks to reunify the island have broken down once again. While both sides of the dispute still appear to be far apart on the terms of any potential settlement we believe that negotiations on the 40-year-old 'Cyprus problem' are reaching a crucial phase.
Full Report Details at
Major Forecast Change
* We have lowered our 2015 real GDP growth forecast to 0.2% from 0.4% on account of tighter-than-expected fiscal policy and a deterioration in the outlook for Russian demand for Cypriot services.
Key Risks To Outlook
* Given the sharp decline in major categories of expenditure particularly fixed investment there is the potential for a stronger rebound than we are currently pencilling in over the next two years. We reiterate however that the economy and the components of expenditure are likely to remain well below their peaks in real terms for several years to come.
The Cyprus Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Cyprus. It is an essential tool for CEOs Chairmen Finance Directors/CFOs Managing Directors Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of Cyprus's economic political and financial prospects through end-2019 just published by award-winning forecasters Business Monitor International (BMI).
* Forecast the pace and stability of Cyprus's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Cyprus's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in Cyprus including currency volatility the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The Cyprus Country Risk Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections: Economic Outlook Political Outlook and Operational Risk.
How will the Cyprus' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Cyprus through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Cyprus Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019 set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
* Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita) population inflation current account balance and the exchange rate.
* BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk and rates the business environment within a global and regional context.
* Economic Activity - real GDP growth employment inflation consumption (retail sales and confidence).
* Balance of Payments - trade and investment current and capital account.
* Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
* Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls foreign investment flows exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
* Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies government finance and tax reforms.
* Foreign Direct Investment - approvals inflows and climate.
* External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
* Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities growth in key regions inflation and interest and exchange rates in the United States Japan China and the eurozone.
* Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Cyprus and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
* Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Cyprus sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector government and multilateral contacts.
* Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy which could significantly affect your company's business prospects from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
What are the political risks to doing business in Cyprus over the next 5-years?
BMI's Cyprus country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
* SWOT Analysis for the Cyprus Market - Political Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats facing Cyprus.
* Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Index assesses explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest positioning and trends for Cyprus's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
* Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy and likely changes to the business operating environment.
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