Tuesday, 02 January 2024 12:17 GMT

Spy Drones Are Compromising America's Nuclear Triad


(MENAFN- Asia Times) On March 8 a single high altitude drone crossed the perimeter of Barksdale Air Force base in Louisiana late at night, then disappeared. Some thought it was just another civilian operating a drone, but that theory became suspect when the drone carried out maneuvers over weapon storage areas on the base.

The use of spies and drones is part of an intensifying pattern of Chinese intelligence gathering with a long term aim of neutralizing US nuclear capabilities.

What happened

(The timeline data below were gathered from Gemini AI by Google.)

After the March 8 single drone event at Barksdale, on March 9 between 3 am and 7 am, 12 to 15 drones appeared over the Barksdale flight line. These came in“waves” and stayed over the base for as around four hours. Reports say that the drones had their lights on. This forced all air operations and loading work to halt and, for an undisclosed period, workers and personnel were instructed to shelter in place.

Between March 10 and March 13, smaller drone groups (three to five drones each) appeared intermittently, usually between 10 pm and 2 am. These drones did not loiter as long – typically 45 to 90 minutes – but moved in“racetrack” patterns around the base's northern and southern boundaries of the base.

On March 15, a final drone formation was detected moving at high speed toward the Bossier City side of the base before vanishing from radar.

Very little is known about these drones. According to eye witnesses, the drones flew at relatively low altitude (around 1,000 feet) and were tracked, for a time, on radar. They were seen from the ground and, no doubt, photographed. However, no photos of the drones have been released. It is not clear whether the drones were electrically powered or used liquid fuel, but electrically powered drones normally can't stay aloft much longer than 90 minutes. Although they were seen from the ground, no one has disclosed the type of drone.

Drones with lights are usually associated with commercial drones used for photography, agriculture, mapping and other tasks. US military drones also are equipped with navigation and anti-collision lights, similar to those on manned aircraft. Personnel at the base were equipped with shotgun-like handheld electronic jammers. Efforts to jam or confuse the drones failed.

Most commercial jammers are designed to handle typical drone frequencies, which are similar to wireless and cellular telephones.

Modern drones, if not autonomous, are controlled by remote operators and the drone flight path is determined by GPS, if present.

Autonomous drones, on the other hand, do not link back to remote operators but are programmed to carry out a task or sequence of tasks. They may use GPS, although they could also use a modern form of feature and terrain recognition, and they may send information linked to satellites, either Starlink, which has become a major drone combat feature in the Ukraine war, or another satellite service. Or they could simply store information onboard until they return home.

It is likely the drones over Barksdale used frequency-hopping radios and encryption, making jamming difficult to impossible. Many countries now produce software-defined radios, frequency-hopping platforms and software to encrypt the hopping pattern. A number of Chinese companie s sell such components commercially.

Speculation #1

No one can say exactly what kind of navigation or communication systems were involved in the Barksdale case, although ground personnel were impressed at how the drones functioned and how they“scattered” making tracking them outside the base impossible.

There is considerable speculation on the purpose of the intrusions.

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One early theory is that the drones were run by the War Department or another US agency (such as NSA or CIA) and were evaluating how the air base would respond and what actions they would take.

If that was their purpose, they found that the answer was“not much” other than to learn that the jammers did not work. Nonetheless there are good reasons to dismiss this speculative theory, because the War Department and other national security agencies and organizations were aware of the few capabilities at US domestic bases, since none of them have air defense systems. Moreover, the incursions happened when the B-52s were needed in wartime.

Barksdale AFB is home to the US 2nd Bomber Wing that is made up of three squadrons of B-52H aircraft, and also the home to the 307th B-52 Bomber Group, made up of two squadrons, an Air Force Reserve unit.

Barksdale supports the venerable B-52 strategic bomber, an aircraft that has been around for many decades but has often been modernized. Today the Air Force is ordering newer, more efficient engines for the behemoth bomber (it features 8 engines made by Rolls Royce – F130 engines) and will be changing out the radar to the latest AESA standard and creating a fully digital cockpit. The newly modified B-52s will become the B-52J, although it will take at least a decad before the“J” modifications are completed.

The B-52 is a dual-capable bomber – it can carry both conventional and nuclear weapons. Conventional weapons include AGM-86B cruise missiles, AGM-158 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSM), and Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAM), along with Harpoon anti-ship missiles. Included in this list is the 5,000-pound class GBU-72/B Advanced 5K Penetrator. It is not certified to carry the biggest bunker buster, the 30,000-pound GBU-57, which is carried on the B-2 stealth bomber.

The B-52 also carries nuclear weapons. Approximately 46 of the active fleet carry the nuclearAGM-86B ALCM (carrying 20+ air launched cruise missiles), and in the past nuclear gravity bombs such as the B61, B83, and high-yield B53.

The fleet is transitioning to carry the upcoming AGM-181 Long-Range Standoff (LRSO) cruise missile, which will replace the aging ALCM.

The AGM-86B is called a“dial a yield” weapon, in which operators can select a nuclear explosion between 5 and 150 kilotons (kt). For reference, the uranium Hiroshima atomic bomb had a yield of about 15 kt. The AGM-86B ALCM dates to 1982, although it has been updated. When released at altitude, it drops down to tree-top level and uses terrain mapping (TERCOM) and GPS. AGM-86B has a range of about 1,500 miles.

A newer, extended-range LRSO is in the works, but the current version will be retained until at least 2033. A non-nuclear version of the AGM-86B, designed AGM-86C/D has been used on missions since 1991 (it is designated as a Conventional ALCM or CALCM).

It is noteworthy that there are 76 active duty B-52 aircraft, 58 in the 2nd and 5th bomber squadrons, and 18 operated by the Reserves. While not all the B52s are approved to carry nuclear payloads, 46 of them are certified and are part of the US strategic Nuclear Triad.

Speculation #2

The US Nuclear Triad consists of land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and strategic aircraft (bombers).

A second theory regards storage, starting from the fact that Barksdale being part of the Triad can store or at least handle nuclear weapons. Barksdale is also completing, if it has not already finished, new storage areas for nuclear weapons. The idea is Barksdale will replace the current nuclear weapons storage (for B-52s) at Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota. In practice it removes the delay time to move nuclear weapons down to Louisiana from Minot, a little less than three hours' flight time, but the time calculation must include the availability of aircraft and the time to load and unload and then reload.

Were the drones trying to determine if any nuclear ALCMs were transported down from Minot or already locally stored, or whether they were being loaded on the B-52s being dispatched to Iran? It is impossible to know, but otherwise what purpose would there be for Iran, or for its partners – especially China, which has been providing battlefield intelligence to Iran using high powered spy satellites – to perform risky drone intrusions over a US base part of America's Nuclear Triad?

If the idea was only to see how many B-52s were launched, all that would be necessary is to stand near the end of the Barksdale runway and count takeoffs.

Clearly the nuclear activities at Barksdale are of great significance to countries like China and Russia. We have seen nothing of the Russians recently, but China is uber-active.

Speculation #3

The Barksdale drone incursions are part of an intensive Chinese effort to try and find ways to compromise the US Nuclear Triad. The use of spies and drones is part of an intensifying pattern of Chinese intelligence gathering with a long-term aim of neutralizing US nuclear capabilities.

Unlike Speculations #1 and 2, Speculation #3 is proven by spies captured and incidents recorded.

The Chinese have been photographing US naval and air bases. A number of their agents, typically the most amateurish ones, have been caught.

On April 9, 2026, a 21-year-old Chinese student, Tianrui Liang, was arrested at JFK International Airport while attempting to flee the country. He is accused of using a high-powered telephoto lens to photograph aircraft at Offutt Air Force Base in Nebraska in March 2026. Offutt is the headquarters of US Strategic Command (STRATCOM), which oversees the US nuclear command and control (NC3) system.

He also attempted to photograph B-1B strategic bombers at Ellsworth AFB in South Dakota, but the bombers had been moved. He also reportedly visited Tinker AFB in Oklahoma City. Tinker supports the E-3 AWACS and KC-135 refueling tankers.

Internal Department of War (DOW) and FBI tracking indicates that there have been over 150 documented incidents of Chinese nationals attempting to access U.S. military installations and other sensitive government sites since early 2023.

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In late January and early February 2023, China launched a number of“weather” balloons. One of them flew over Alaska, then Canada, and then into the United States. It made a number of loops around Malmstrom AFB focusing on the 341st Missile Wing which manages 150 Minuteman II ICBM silos. Reports say the balloon operated over the base between 24 and 48 hours; was linked by the Iridium satellite to China, which maneuvered the craft; and sent data through US internet service providers.

The balloon was finally shot down along the coast of South Carolina after a public outcry forced the Biden administration to take action. There is, allegedly, a 75-page report on the exploitation of the balloon's electronics (which would have filled three school buses), but the report has not been released.

While China knows exactly what was onboard the spy balloon, and the US probably knows almost as much, very little information has been released, leaving Americans guessing.

Over the last two years, Malmstrom AFB in Montana has reported multiple instances of unidentified drone swarms operating over its missile silos and launch control centers. Malmstrom operates, maintains, and secures the Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) system, America's number one nuclear strike force.

A national security scandal

The use of drones over strategic nuclear bases and other sensitive locations is a national security scandal. The fact that not a single drone has been captured or shot down, and that the government continues to be in denial, is extremely worrisome.

Because drone intrusions have taken place in the northeastern, north-central and southern United States suggests that there are secret foreign drone teams operating on US territory, or very close to US territory. Yet despite multiple drone observations, the launch points remain undiscovered and no operators have been apprehended.

America's nuclear bases and command centers do not have air defenses and are sitting ducks.

The government's response to the threat is far below any acceptable standard, suggesting the government is more interested in burying the evidence than catching the malefactors.

Stephen Bryen is a former US deputy under secretary of defense. You can read this article and many others on his newsletter Weapons and Strategy.

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