Gold Holds Around $4,750 As Ceasefire Uncertainty And Hot CPI Keep Buyers Around

2026-04-10 02:16:13

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Gold is sitting around $4,750 an ounce heading into the weekend, and this morning's inflation numbers gave buyers little reason to walk away.

March CPI came in at 3.3% year-over-year, the biggest monthly jump since 2022. Most of it was energy. Gas crossed $4 a gallon last month, and that fed straight into the headline number. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, came in a bit softer than expected at 2.6% annually. For gold investors the headline number is what counts, and 3.3% keeps the inflation trade alive.

Where Gold Stands Right Now

Gold has had three straight weeks of gains after getting knocked around badly when the Iran war started in late February. At its worst, the metal dropped over 13% from its all-time high above $5,500 as oil spiked and traders started pricing in rate hikes. That's a rough stretch for any asset.

The ceasefire announced Wednesday brought some relief to markets broadly, which actually pulled gold off its recent highs as money rotated back into equities. But the Strait of Hormuz is still not fully open. Ships aren't moving through normally yet, and weekend diplomatic talks in Islamabad between U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Iranian officials could go either way. Until there's a real resolution on the strait, the geopolitical floor under gold stays in place.

Central Banks Aren't Backing Off

One thing that hasn't changed through all the volatility is central bank demand. Global gold ETFs picked up 21 tonnes of net inflows in just the first few days of April, according to the World Gold Council. What's notable is that buying came in while markets were actually calming down, not during a panic spike. Demand that builds during quieter periods tends to be more durable than fear-driven buying that reverses once sentiment shifts.

The broader trend goes back further. Central banks have been aggressively adding gold reserves for years now, with the U.S. dollar's share of global FX reserves falling to its lowest level since 1994 while gold's share has climbed to its highest since 1991. That's not a short-term trade; it's a structural shift in how reserve managers are thinking about their portfolios.

What the Banks Are Saying

J.P. Morgan has a year-end price target of $5,000 per ounce, with some analysts at the firm calling $6,000 a possibility on a longer timeline. Their outlook is underpinned by continued strong central bank and investor demand averaging around 585 tonnes per quarter in 2026.

Goldman Sachs is focused on the Strait of Hormuz. Their view is straightforward: if the strait stays closed another month, Brent crude stays above $100, inflation stays elevated, and that's the environment where gold performs. They see risks to their oil price forecast skewed to the upside as long as the ceasefire remains fragile.

Silver Moving Too

Gold isn't the only metal worth watching. Silver is trading around $75.89 an ounce, also up on the week. Silver tends to move more sharply than gold in both directions since it carries more industrial demand exposure alongside its safe-haven properties. The gold-to-silver ratio is sitting around 63:1 right now, which some precious metals investors watch as a signal for relative value between the two.

The Fed Factor

The Fed isn't cutting rates in April, that much is certain. Markets are pricing roughly 45% odds of at least one cut before year-end, but that number is almost entirely tied to what happens with energy prices over the next few months. If the ceasefire holds, the strait reopens, and oil pulls back, inflation cools and rate cut odds improve. That scenario would create some short-term headwinds for gold but would likely be positive for equities and risk assets broadly.

If the talks break down over the weekend and the conflict flares back up, oil goes higher, inflation stays sticky, and the Fed stays frozen. In that environment gold likely sees renewed buying interest, particularly from investors looking for something that holds value while everything else reprices.

Either way, gold is not going to have a quiet few weeks. The variables are real and they're moving fast.

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