Taiwan Opposition Leader's China Trip Is Fraught With Risk

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With official dialogue between Taipei and Beijing largely frozen, the KMT's role as an informal intermediary may matter more than ever. Cheng's desire to promote“peace and reconciliation” is commendable. But in going to mainland China, she may walk her party straight into a political minefield.

First, from the perspective of optics, she should have visited the US before mainland China. She reportedly plans to visit Washington this year, but the sequence of these trips matters.

For the leader of a major political party to visit Beijing before Washington creates an impression that the party prioritizes its relationship with China over its relationship with the US. This is almost certainly not the message Cheng intends to convey, but it's how her trip will be perceived in both Taiwan and Washington.

In addition, Cheng's visit will occur barely a month before US President Donald Trump meets with Xi in Beijing. This timing might be coincidental, but there are fears that her hosts will try to get her to make statements Xi can use to nudge Trump to adjust elements of America's Taiwan policy in ways that favor Beijing.

While this risk isn't contingent on her visiting the mainland, any offhand remark she makes during her trip that appears to echo Beijing's narratives will be even harder for Cheng and the KMT to live down. If Xi talks Trump into endorsing a position that further erodes Taiwan's international profile, Cheng's critics will pin part of the blame on her.

Even if Cheng makes no major missteps, the optics of this trip will test her party. Her eagerness to engage Beijing is controversial even within the KMT. Some see an opportunity for her to help stabilize cross-Strait relations much like Lien Chan did during the administration of openly pro-independence president Chen Shui-bian (2000-2008).

Should Cheng achieve similar results, she could become a transformational leader capable of unifying the party and leading it back to electoral victory.

Others, however, worry that she is harming the party by appearing too close to Beijing. They also support dialogue but are more skeptical of the Chinese Communist Party's willingness to engage in good faith. They fear Cheng's approach to this engagement will deepen public distrust in the KMT and hinder the party's chances in future elections.

The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has long portrayed the KMT as“pro-Beijing,” and much of the Taiwanese and international press echo this view. Many within the KMT have worked for years to counter this narrative. Cheng risks undermining this progress unless she and the party convincingly demonstrate their efforts to engage Beijing won't come at the expense of Taiwan's security.

That said, Cheng is saying some of the right things. She insists her outreach to Beijing is part of a strategy that also includes maintaining strong deterrence. But on deterrence, critics-and much of the public-don't see action to match the rhetoric.