Europe's Energy Dilemma: Gulf Instability Forces Caspian Rethink

Recent developments in the Gulf, particularly the tightening situation in the Strait of Hormuz amid the backdrop of tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran, have accelerated the European Union's search for alternative energy routes.

Contrary to Washington's expectations, European leaders are pursuing a dual-track approach: seeking stability in the region while simultaneously taking steps to diversify energy supplies. In this context, the South Caucasus, and more precisely, the energy resources of the Caspian basin, has firmly entered the EU's strategic focus.

As a result, the Caspian energy corridor is steadily gaining prominence within the EU's framework of interests. This suggests that the Caspian region is increasingly viewed not only as an energy partner but also as a relatively secure and reliable zone in a volatile geopolitical landscape.

Some sources indicate that, given the growing risks in the Gulf, there are already discussions about the future redirection of energy flows from the region towards the South Caucasus, from where they could be distributed onwards to European markets. Amid rising tensions, particularly surrounding Iran, and the threat of supply disruptions, such projects are no longer seen as distant ambitions but as emerging necessities.

Within this shifting landscape, Azerbaijan is strengthening its position as a reliable energy partner, expanding gas exports to Europe and reinforcing its strategic importance.

Azerbaijan plays a key role in the energy sector, particularly through its oil and gas resources and the infrastructure it has developed to transport them to European markets. The Southern Gas Corridor, which includes the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline and the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline, remains central to Europe's efforts to diversify its energy sources.

In early March, President Ilham Aliyev reiterated the country's ambition to expand its footprint in the European energy market, noting that Azerbaijan has already begun supplying gas to Germany and Austria. As a result, ten EU member states now receive Azerbaijani gas, with further increases expected as new production comes online.

This development is increasingly regarded in Brussels as one of the most viable alternative options for the European Union, even if Azerbaijan's overall supply capacity remains smaller compared to that of Gulf producers. The central question, however, remains the stabilisation of the Gulf and the stance European leaders will adopt in their relations with Iran.

Tehran, for its part, has signalled openness to agreements with European, Asian and Arab countries regarding the use of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian officials have emphasised their control over the strait and suggested the possibility of formal arrangements governing its use.

At the same time, the European Union is working towards ending its dependence on Russian gas by 2027. It is worth recalling that Russia previously accounted for more than 40% of Europe's gas supply. While Europe has increased imports of liquefied natural gas from the United States, pricing concerns have limited its long-term attractiveness.

It is known that the European Union is working to completely abandon Russian gas from 2027, renewing its energy sources. It should be recalled that Russia previously supplied more than 40 per cent of Europe's gas reserves. At the same time, Europe has imported significant volumes of liquefied natural gas from the United States. However, in terms of price, this has not satisfied Europe in the long term. The recent statements made by Donald Trump have also created somewhat different opinions. His desire to withdraw from the Gulf and the message he has given to European leaders have not been received unequivocally. In fact, Trump's emphasis that he is not interested in Hormuz and that these interests are supposedly more important for Europe has raised a number of questions.

US President Donald Trump has claimed that the US authorities do not need supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. According to him, the restoration of navigation through this strategic route should be handled by those countries that use it to transport oil.

“We don't need it. The countries that receive oil through the Strait of Hormuz are obliged to protect this passage. They need to take control of it,” Trump said.

The US president also said that the United States has more oil reserves than Russia and Saudi Arabia combined, and is no longer dependent on Middle Eastern energy resources.

Taken together, these signals suggest a growing divergence between Washington and Brussels. While the United States appears increasingly disengaged from the Gulf's strategic energy routes, the European Union finds itself compelled to reassess its position.

As in the case of Ukraine, a familiar pattern is emerging: Europe is being pushed towards a more independent geopolitical and energy strategy. This raises a fundamental question-how will the EU redefine its policy in the Middle East and the Gulf, and can the Caspian corridor truly become a cornerstone of its energy security?

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