Starmer Must Be Honest About Fuel Shortages, Inflation, The Pound And Gilt Risks
Starmer and Reeves need to be honest about potentially imminent fuel shortages, the likelihood of UK inflation spiking again, how the pound could come under increasing pressure, and the growing risks now facing the UK bond market.
This is the harsh warning from Nigel Green, CEO of global financial advisory giant deVere GroupOil has climbed to around $115 a barrel, while European gas prices are moving higher again. Roughly a fifth of the global oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Pressure on that corridor is already affecting flows, raising the risk of delays, higher insurance costs, and constrained supply reaching international markets.
Nigel Green says the consequences for inflation are immediate and broad-based.
The UK has only recently emerged from a period of double-digit inflation driven in large part by energy prices. A renewed surge would arrive at a time when household finances remain stretched and businesses are operating with limited margin for additional cost increases.
Currency markets are also highly sensitive to these dynamics.
The contrast with other major economies is becoming more pronounced.
Nigel Green warns that the implications extend directly into the UK government bond market.
Financial markets are beginning to respond, but not fully.
The situation in the Middle East remains volatile, with increased military activity and ongoing threats to infrastructure adding to uncertainty around supply.
Political signalling is also contributing to market instability, as US president Donald Trump has indicated a willingness to take control of Iranian oil assets while also suggesting a deal remains possible.
This combination of factors is reshaping how energy markets should be understood.
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