Key Market Events For The Week Of March 30 April 3, 2026

(MENAFN- The Rio Times) US Nonfarm Payrolls, ISM Manufacturing, BanRep Rate Decision, EZ Flash CPI, German CPI, Tankan, CB Consumer Confidence, Powell Speaks, Easter Closures

Week Overview

Easter dominates the calendar's structure but not its substance. The week packs three days of heavy data before Maundy Thursday and Good Friday shut down most global markets. US Nonfarm Payrolls (Friday 8:30 AM, cons. +56K, prior −92K) technically falls on Good Friday - released to closed US equity and bond markets, meaning the full reaction defers to Monday April 6.

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Wednesday 10:00 AM, cons. 52.3, prior 52.4) and US Retail Sales (Wednesday 8:30 AM, cons. +0.4% MoM) are the week's live-market US anchors. For LATAM, BanRep's rate decision (Tuesday 2:00 PM, cons. +100 bps to 11.25%, prior 10.25%) is the week's most consequential regional event - Colombia's central bank has been in a surprise tightening cycle since January, driven by a 23% minimum wage hike and inflation expectations that jumped to 6.4% for 2026. German CPI flash (Monday, cons. +0.9% MoM) and Eurozone flash CPI (Tuesday, cons. 2.5% YoY vs. 1.9%) will show whether the Middle East oil shock is now feeding through to European consumer prices.

Japan's Tankan survey (Tuesday, cons. Large Manufacturers 16 vs. 15) and China PMIs (Monday/Tuesday) round out the Asian picture. Powell speaks Monday at 10:30 AM alongside the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index - his first public remarks since last week's FOMC hold. Brazil delivers IGP-M inflation, bank lending, budget data, PPI, industrial production, and CAGED payroll jobs across the week. Chile adds unemployment and copper/manufacturing production. The week effectively ends Thursday for most LATAM markets (Maundy Thursday closure in Argentina, Colombia, Peru, Mexico, Costa Rica, Venezuela) and Friday for the entire Western hemisphere (Good Friday).

⚠ Holiday Watch - Easter Week

Maundy Thursday (Apr 2): Argentina, Colombia, Peru, Mexico, Costa Rica, Venezuela closed. Good Friday (Apr 3): US, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Australia, South Africa, Canada, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru, India closed. US NFP releases to closed markets - full reaction defers to Monday Apr 6.

Three Themes That Will Define the Week

1

US labor market stress test - NFP, JOLTS, ADP, ISM Employment: The US economy shed 92K jobs in February - the worst print in four months - and the question is whether March rebounds or confirms a deteriorating trend. NFP (Friday 8:30 AM, cons. +56K) would mark a return to positive territory but well below the 130K January figure. The report releases to closed US markets (Good Friday), creating an unusual delayed-reaction dynamic: the data will be digested over the Easter weekend and priced in on Monday's open. Before that, JOLTS job openings (Tuesday 10:00 AM, cons. 6.900M vs. 6.946M), ADP private payrolls (Wednesday 8:15 AM, cons. 42K vs. 63K), and ISM Manufacturing Employment (Wednesday) provide leading reads. ISM Manufacturing PMI (cons. 52.3 vs. 52.4) is the week's most important live-market US datapoint - the Prices Paid component (cons. 73.6 vs. 70.5) will signal whether tariff and oil-driven cost pressures are accelerating. CB Consumer Confidence (Tuesday, cons. 88.0 vs. 91.2) tests whether Michigan's collapse is spreading.

2

BanRep's tightening cycle - Colombia's outlier stance: While the rest of LATAM is cutting or pausing, Colombia is hiking. BanRep shocked markets in January with a 100 bps increase to 10.25%, the first hike in nearly three years, driven by a 23% minimum wage increase that sent 2026 inflation expectations soaring to 6.4%. The March 31 meeting (2:00 PM ET, cons. +100 bps to 11.25%) is expected to deliver another aggressive hike - making Colombia the only major LATAM economy tightening policy amid the Copom's easing, Chile's anticipated cuts, and Banxico's hold. The vote split (4 for hike, 2 for cut, 1 for hold in January) reveals deep internal disagreement, and the statement will be parsed for signals on how much further the cycle runs. This is a high-conviction divergence trade: Colombia's real rate is being pushed higher while Brazil's is beginning to fall.

3

Eurozone flash CPI - the oil shock reaches consumers: Eurozone CPI (Tuesday 5:00 AM, cons. 2.5% YoY vs. 1.9%) is expected to jump sharply as the Hormuz-driven oil shock begins feeding through to energy prices. The ECB's March staff projections already flagged a spike to 3.1% in Q2 2026, with GDP revised down 0.3 pp to 0.9%. German CPI flash (Monday, cons. +0.9% MoM) arrives first and typically sets the tone - state-level readings from Bavaria, Saxony, Hesse, and North Rhine-Westphalia populate through the morning before the national figure at 8:00 AM. Core CPI (cons. 2.4%, unchanged) will determine whether the ECB treats the energy spike as transitory or embedded. This data arrives just days after the ECB held rates and Lagarde warned about growth risks - a hot core reading would make the "patience" narrative harder to sustain. Japan's Tankan (Tuesday, cons. Large Manufacturers 16 vs. 15) and China NBS PMIs (Monday, cons. Manufacturing 50.2 vs. 49.0) complete the global activity map.

Week at a Glance - High-Impact Events Only

Day	Time	Region	Event	Cons.	Prior
Mon	7:00 AM	BRAZIL	IGP-M Inflation MoM (Mar)	-	−0.73%
Mon	8:00 AM	EU	German CPI MoM (Mar, flash)	0.9%	0.2%
Mon	10:30 AM	US	Fed Chair Powell Speaks	-	-
Mon	9:30 PM	CHINA	NBS Manufacturing PMI (Mar)	50.2	49.0
Tue	5:00 AM	EU	EZ CPI YoY (Mar, flash)	2.5%	1.9%
Tue	10:00 AM	US	CB Consumer Confidence (Mar)	88.0	91.2
Tue	10:00 AM	US	JOLTS Job Openings (Feb)	6.900M	6.946M
Tue	2:00 PM	COLOMBIA	BanRep Interest Rate Decision	11.25%	10.25%
Tue	7:50 PM	JAPAN	Tankan Large Manufacturers (Q1)	16	15
Wed	8:15 AM	US	ADP Nonfarm Employment (Mar)	42K	63K
Wed	8:30 AM	US	Retail Sales MoM (Feb)	0.4%	−0.2%
Wed	10:00 AM	US	ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar)	52.3	52.4
Thu	8:00 AM	BRAZIL	Industrial Production MoM (Feb)	-	1.8%
Thu	8:30 AM	US	Trade Balance (Feb)	−59.80B	−54.50B
Thu	8:30 AM	US	Initial Jobless Claims	212K	210K
Fri*	8:30 AM	US	Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar)	56K	−92K
Fri*	8:30 AM	US	Unemployment Rate (Mar)	4.4%	4.4%

Week in Context

This is the quarter's closing week and it carries the accumulated weight of everything that came before: the Copom's cautious 25 bps cut to 14.75%, the Fed's unchanged dot plot, the ECB's growth downgrade, Banxico's hold amid a divided market, and the Iran–Hormuz conflict that has kept Brent above $90 and reshaped every central bank's inflation calculus. The US labor market is the week's macro centerpiece. February's −92K payrolls print - the first negative reading in months - raised the question of whether the economy is entering a genuine slowdown or just absorbing temporary disruptions (healthcare strikes, federal government layoffs). March NFP (cons. +56K) would represent a partial recovery, but well below the pace needed to keep the unemployment rate from drifting higher. The data releases to closed markets on Good Friday, creating a rare weekend-digestion dynamic. For LATAM, BanRep's expected hike to 11.25% would make Colombia the region's most hawkish central bank - a striking divergence from Brazil's new easing cycle, Chile's near-target inflation, and Mexico's pause. The January 100 bps surprise was driven by the 23% minimum wage shock and surging inflation expectations (6.4% for 2026, up from 4.6%); the March decision will reveal whether the board sees the need for equally aggressive action or can moderate to 50 bps. Europe's flash CPI will confirm what the ECB already fears: that the oil shock is pushing headline inflation back above 2.5%, potentially constraining the Governing Council's ability to cut even as growth deteriorates. German state CPI readings Monday will set the tone. China's NBS PMIs and Japan's Tankan complete the global cycle, with both expected to show modest improvement despite trade tensions. Easter closures compress all of this into effectively three trading days - Monday through Wednesday carry the weight of a full week.

Monday - March 30 German CPI flash, Powell speaks, China PMIs overnight, Brazil IGP-M, EZ/EU sentiment, Dallas Fed.

Time	Region	Event	Impact	Cons.	Prior
4:00 AM	EU	German State CPI Readings (Mar, Bavaria/Saxony/Hesse/NRW)	MED	-	-
5:00 AM	EU	EZ Business & Consumer Survey (Mar)	MED	96.5	98.3
5:00 AM	EU	EZ Consumer Confidence (Mar, final)	MED	−16.3	−16.3
5:00 AM	EU	EZ Industrial Sentiment (Mar)	MED	−9.0	−7.1
7:00 AM	BRAZIL	IGP-M Inflation Index MoM (Mar)	MED	-	−0.73%
7:25 AM	BRAZIL	BCB Focus Market Readout	MED	-	-
8:00 AM	EU	German CPI MoM (Mar, flash)	HIGH	0.9%	0.2%
8:00 AM	EU	German CPI YoY (Mar, flash)	HIGH	-	1.9%
8:00 AM	EU	German HICP MoM (Mar, flash)	MED	-	0.4%
8:00 AM	CHILE	Unemployment Rate (Feb)	MED	-	8.3%
10:30 AM	US	Dallas Fed Manufacturing (Mar)	MED	-	0.2
10:30 AM	US	Fed Chair Powell Speaks	HIGH	-	-
4:00 PM	US	FOMC Member Williams Speaks	MED	-	-
9:30 PM	CHINA	NBS Manufacturing PMI (Mar)	HIGH	50.2	49.0
9:30 PM	CHINA	NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar)	MED	49.9	49.5

Two anchors bookend the day. German CPI flash (8:00 AM) is the week's first inflation test - state-level readings from Bavaria, Saxony, Hesse, NRW, Baden-Württemberg, and Brandenburg populate from 4:00 AM, giving markets a running preview before the national figure. Consensus expects a sharp +0.9% MoM jump (vs. +0.2%), reflecting energy price pass-through from the Hormuz crisis. Powell speaks (10:30 AM) alongside the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index - his first public remarks since the FOMC held rates and left the dot plot unchanged. Markets will parse every word for signals on how the committee is weighting tariff inflation versus labor market weakness. Brazil's IGP-M (prior −0.73% MoM) provides a wholesale-level inflation read, while the Focus survey will show whether last week's 4.10% IPCA forecast has moved further after the Copom cut. Chile Unemployment (prior 8.3%) adds a LATAM labor market datapoint. China NBS PMIs (9:30 PM) close the day - Manufacturing consensus at 50.2 (vs. 49.0) would represent a return to expansion, a positive signal for commodity-linked LATAM economies.

Tuesday - March 31 Q1 FINAL DAY + BANREP + EZ CPI - EZ flash CPI, BanRep rate decision, CB Consumer Confidence, JOLTS, Tankan overnight, UK GDP, Chicago PMI.

Time	Region	Event	Impact	Cons.	Prior
2:00 AM	UK	GDP QoQ / YoY (Q4, final)	MED	0.1% / 1.0%	0.1% / 1.0%
2:00 AM	EU	German Retail Sales MoM (Feb)	MED	0.3%	−0.9%
2:45 AM	EU	French CPI MoM (Mar, flash)	MED	0.8%	0.6%
3:55 AM	EU	German Unemployment Change (Mar)	MED	2K	1K
5:00 AM	EU	EZ CPI YoY (Mar, flash)	HIGH	2.5%	1.9%
5:00 AM	EU	EZ Core CPI YoY (Mar, flash)	HIGH	2.4%	2.4%
5:00 AM	EU	Italian CPI MoM (Mar, flash)	MED	0.6%	0.7%
7:30 AM	BRAZIL	Budget Balance / Gross Debt-to-GDP (Feb)	MED	-	40.06B / 78.7%
8:00 AM	CHILE	Retail Sales YoY (Feb)	MED	-	3.7%
8:00 AM	CHILE	Copper Production YoY (Feb)	MED	-	−3.0%
8:00 AM	CHILE	Manufacturing Production YoY (Feb)	MED	-	−3.8%
8:00 AM	BRAZIL	PPI MoM (Feb)	MED	-	0.34%
8:30 AM	CANADA	GDP MoM (Jan)	MED	0.0%	0.2%
9:45 AM	US	Chicago PMI (Mar)	MED	54.7	57.7
10:00 AM	US	CB Consumer Confidence (Mar)	HIGH	88.0	91.2
10:00 AM	US	JOLTS Job Openings (Feb)	HIGH	6.900M	6.946M
1:30 PM	BRAZIL	CAGED Net Payroll Jobs (Feb)	MED	-	112.33K
2:00 PM	COLOMBIA	BanRep Interest Rate Decision	HIGH	11.25%	10.25%
7:50 PM	JAPAN	Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q1)	HIGH	16	15
7:50 PM	JAPAN	Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q1)	MED	33	34
9:45 PM	CHINA	Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar)	MED	51.8	52.1

The week's most loaded session - and Q1's final trading day. Eurozone flash CPI (5:00 AM, cons. 2.5% YoY vs. 1.9%) is expected to show the largest month-on-month jump since the energy crisis, driven by Hormuz-related fuel costs filtering into transport and utilities. Core CPI (cons. 2.4%, unchanged) is the ECB's focus - stability would support the "transitory energy shock" narrative, while an upside surprise would challenge it. CB Consumer Confidence (10:00 AM, cons. 88.0 vs. 91.2) tests whether the US confidence collapse is accelerating - this report, combined with Michigan's 55.5 reading, would paint a picture of deeply pessimistic American consumers. JOLTS (cons. 6.900M) provides the labor demand side ahead of Friday's NFP. BanRep (2:00 PM, cons. +100 bps to 11.25%) is the LATAM anchor - another 100 bps hike would bring the cumulative tightening to 200 bps in two meetings, the most aggressive monetary action in the region. Brazil delivers CAGED formal payroll data (prior +112.3K), budget balance, and PPI. Chile's copper production (prior −3.0% YoY) and retail sales round out the Andean data. Japan's Tankan overnight (cons. Large Manufacturers 16) would mark the highest reading since early 2022 if confirmed, suggesting Japanese industry is weathering the global turbulence better than expected.

Wednesday - April 1 ISM DAY + US RETAIL SALES - ISM Manufacturing, US Retail Sales, ADP, final Manufacturing PMIs worldwide, Brazil S&P Global PMI.

Time	Region	Event	Impact	Cons.	Prior
3:15 AM	EU	Spanish Manufacturing PMI (Mar)	MED	50.5	50.0
3:55 AM	EU	German Manufacturing PMI (Mar, final)	MED	51.7	51.7
4:00 AM	EU	EZ Manufacturing PMI (Mar, final)	MED	51.4	51.4
4:30 AM	UK	Manufacturing PMI (Mar, final)	MED	51.4	51.4
5:00 AM	EU	EZ Unemployment Rate (Feb)	MED	6.1%	6.1%
7:30 AM	CHILE	Economic Activity YoY (Feb)	MED	-	−0.1%
8:15 AM	US	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Mar)	HIGH	42K	63K
8:30 AM	US	Retail Sales MoM (Feb)	HIGH	0.4%	−0.2%
8:30 AM	US	Core Retail Sales MoM (Feb)	HIGH	0.3%	0.0%
9:00 AM	BRAZIL	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar)	MED	-	47.3
9:45 AM	US	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar, final)	MED	52.4	52.4
10:00 AM	US	ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar)	HIGH	52.3	52.4
10:00 AM	US	ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid (Mar)	HIGH	73.6	70.5
10:00 AM	US	ISM Manufacturing New Orders (Mar)	HIGH	-	55.8
10:00 AM	US	ISM Manufacturing Employment (Mar)	MED	-	48.8
10:30 AM	US	EIA Crude Oil Inventories	MED	-	6.926M
11:00 AM	MEXICO	Manufacturing PMI (Mar)	MED	-	47.10
11:00 AM	COLOMBIA	Exports YoY (Feb)	MED	-	12.60%
1:30 PM	BRAZIL	Foreign Exchange Flows	MED	-	−0.119B

The week's most consequential live-market session. US Retail Sales (8:30 AM, cons. +0.4% vs. −0.2%) will show whether the American consumer is recovering from February's decline or pulling back further amid confidence collapse and inflation anxiety. ADP (8:15 AM, cons. 42K vs. 63K) provides the final pre-NFP labor market signal. Then the main event: ISM Manufacturing (10:00 AM, cons. 52.3 vs. 52.4). The headline is expected to hold near expansion territory, but the Prices Paid component (cons. 73.6 vs. 70.5) is the inflation flashpoint - a move above 73 would mark the highest input cost reading since the 2022 energy crisis and signal that tariff and oil-price pressures are intensifying on the factory floor. New Orders (prior 55.8) will tell us if demand is holding. Brazil's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (9:00 AM, prior 47.3) will show whether the Copom's rate cut is beginning to lift factory sentiment - anything above 49 would be a significant improvement. Chile Economic Activity (prior −0.1% YoY) tests whether the economy is stabilizing after the Q3 2025 contraction. Mexico Manufacturing PMI (prior 47.10) gauges the post-Banxico outlook. This is effectively the week's last full trading day for most markets.

Thursday - April 2 Maundy Thursday - LATAM largely closed - LATAM closed for Maundy Thursday (Argentina, Colombia, Peru, Mexico, Costa Rica, Venezuela). Brazil industrial production, US trade balance and claims, Challenger job cuts.

Time	Region	Event	Impact	Cons.	Prior
4:00 AM	EU	ECB Economic Bulletin	MED	-	-
5:00 AM	EU	Italian Retail Sales MoM (Feb)	MED	0.4%	0.6%
5:00 AM	BRAZIL	IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM (Mar)	MED	-	0.25%
8:00 AM	BRAZIL	Industrial Production MoM (Feb)	HIGH	-	1.8%
8:00 AM	BRAZIL	Industrial Production YoY (Feb)	MED	-	0.2%
8:30 AM	US	Initial Jobless Claims	HIGH	212K	210K
8:30 AM	US	Trade Balance (Feb)	HIGH	−59.80B	−54.50B
8:30 AM	US	Goods Trade Balance (Feb, final)	MED	-	−80.80B
8:30 AM	CANADA	Trade Balance (Feb)	MED	−1.90B	−3.65B
1:00 PM	US	Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	MED	-	409
4:30 PM	JAPAN	Services PMI (Mar, final)	MED	52.8	52.8
9:45 PM	CHINA	Caixin Services PMI (Mar)	MED	53.7	56.7

A truncated session with LATAM largely closed for Maundy Thursday. Argentina, Colombia, Peru, Mexico, Costa Rica, and Venezuela are all shut - meaning BanRep's Tuesday decision has only one day of Colombian market reaction before the holiday. Brazil remains open and delivers Industrial Production (8:00 AM, prior +1.8% MoM / +0.2% YoY) - a critical read on whether the manufacturing sector is holding up under 14.75% rates. US Trade Balance (cons. −$59.80B vs. −$54.50B) is expected to widen, reflecting tariff-related front-loading of imports. Claims (cons. 212K) provide the weekly labor pulse. The ECB's Economic Bulletin (4:00 AM) will expand on the growth downgrade and inflation spike outlined in last week's staff projections. China's Caixin Services PMI (9:45 PM, cons. 53.7 vs. 56.7) is expected to show a significant deceleration - if confirmed, it would signal that China's services recovery is losing momentum. Thin global liquidity ahead of Good Friday means any surprise data could generate outsized moves.

Friday - April 3 GOOD FRIDAY - MARKETS CLOSED - Good Friday - virtually all global markets closed. US NFP releases to closed markets.

Time	Region	Event	Impact	Cons.	Prior
8:30 AM	US	Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar)	HIGH	56K	−92K
8:30 AM	US	Unemployment Rate (Mar)	HIGH	4.4%	4.4%
8:30 AM	US	Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Mar)	HIGH	0.3%	0.4%
8:30 AM	US	Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Mar)	MED	-	3.8%
8:30 AM	US	Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar)	MED	51K	−86K
8:30 AM	US	Participation Rate (Mar)	MED	-	62.0%
9:45 AM	US	S&P Global Composite PMI (Mar, final)	MED	51.4	51.4
9:45 AM	US	S&P Global Services PMI (Mar, final)	MED	51.1	51.1

Good Friday closes equity and bond markets in the US, UK, Europe, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru, Canada, Australia, South Africa, and India - one of the most comprehensive global shutdowns of the year. But the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases March Nonfarm Payrolls anyway (8:30 AM, cons. +56K vs. −92K). The data will be parsed over the Easter weekend with no ability to trade the reaction until Monday April 6. This creates a unique setup: if the number surprises sharply in either direction, Monday's opening gaps could be significant across FX, rates, and equities. Unemployment (cons. 4.4%, unchanged) and Average Hourly Earnings (cons. +0.3% MoM vs. +0.4%) complete the jobs picture. A payroll number above 100K would ease recession fears and likely strengthen the dollar at Monday's open; a second consecutive negative print would accelerate rate-cut repricing and send risk assets lower. The S&P Global final PMIs also release but will be overshadowed. For all practical purposes, the trading week ends Wednesday evening.

The Bottom Line

Three trading days carry the weight of a full week, capped by the most unusual NFP release of the year. ISM Manufacturing on Wednesday is the week's live-market centerpiece - the Prices Paid component will tell us whether the tariff-and-oil inflation shock is intensifying or stabilizing on the factory floor, while the headline PMI confirms whether US manufacturing's expansion is holding. Retail Sales the same morning will reveal the American consumer's actual spending behavior, a reality check against the confidence collapse in Michigan and Conference Board surveys. For LATAM, BanRep's Tuesday decision is the regional story: another 100 bps hike to 11.25% would cement Colombia as the only major economy tightening aggressively, a stark divergence from Brazil's cautious easing, Chile's near-target inflation, and Mexico's pause. The vote split and forward guidance will determine whether markets price 12%+ as the terminal rate. Eurozone flash CPI (Tuesday, cons. 2.5%) will confirm the oil shock's arrival in European consumer prices - the gap between headline and core will define the ECB's policy space. German CPI Monday and Powell's speech set the early-week tone. Then comes the weekend wildcard: NFP drops to closed markets on Good Friday. A second consecutive negative print (after −92K in February) would rewrite the rate-cut narrative over Easter weekend; a strong rebound above 100K would settle recession fears. Either way, Monday April 6 opens with position risk that had no venue to express itself for 72 hours. Hedge accordingly. This is a week where the calendar structure matters as much as the data. Trade the three days you have.

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