Oil, Wall Street, And Bond Markets Are Trump's Only Guardrails On Iran

2026-03-28 12:42:02

(MENAFN- Investor Ideas) (Investorideas Newswire) a go-to platform for big investing ideas, including gold and energy stocks issues market commentary from deVere.

Oil, Wall Street, and bond markets are the only forces capable of President Trump restraining escalation in the Iran conflict, with financial pressure increasingly shaping the direction of US policy, warns the CEO of one of the world's largest independent financial advisory organizations.

The comments from Nigel Green of deVere Group

On February 28, Brent crude was trading below $95 a barrel, and the 10-year US Treasury yield sat at 3.96%. By March 21, as strikes intensified and fears grew over disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, oil had surged through $105 and yields had pushed above 4.3%, while the S&P 500 had fallen for four consecutive weeks.

The pressure point came days later. Between March 21 and March 23, oil spiked toward $107, equity markets extended losses, and Treasury auctions during that same week drew weaker demand, pushing yields higher still.

On March 23, the US announced a temporary five-day pause on strikes targeting Iranian energy infrastructure.

The market reaction was immediate. On March 24, oil prices dropped sharply, falling close to 10% from their peak.

The S&P 500 rebounded strongly in the same session, while Treasury yields eased back from recent highs. The sequence was clear: escalation drove stress across all three indicators; restraint followed.

Energy markets have been the most immediate transmission channel. Disruption fears around key shipping routes and infrastructure have driven crude prices into triple digits in recent weeks, feeding directly into inflation expectations and consumer costs.

Stock markets have reinforced that message. The S&P 500 has recorded multiple weeks of losses since the conflict intensified, with declines closely tied to escalation points and rebounds following signals of de-escalation.

The bond market, however, represents the most structurally significant constraint. Treasury yields have moved higher in recent weeks, driven by a combination of inflation fears, heavy issuance, and signs of weaker demand at auctions.

Volatility in the Treasury market has also intensified, with liquidity conditions deteriorating during periods of stress. This has raised concerns about how easily the US can continue to fund large deficits if demand becomes less reliable.

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