Ibovespa Rallies 1.6% On Iran Plan, Poll

(MENAFN- The Rio Times) B3 / Ibovespa Daily Report · March 26, 2026 · Covering March 25 Session

Ibovespa 185,424 ▲ +1.60% · +2,915 pts H 186,401 · L 182,524 USD/BRL R$ 5.2202 ▼ −0.67% Third straight real gain Selic 14.75% Focus YE: 12.50% Brent Crude $96.68 ▼ −3.5% Mar 26 pre-market 1

A US 15-point peace proposal to Iran deepened the ceasefire trade and pushed Brent below $97 in Thursday pre-market. Trump said Washington and Tehran are "in negotiations right now" and pulled back from his earlier threat to strike Iranian energy infrastructure. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran is still evaluating the proposal despite an initial negative response, contradicting state media reports of outright rejection. Brent fell 2.2% to $102.22 during the session before sliding to $96.68 overnight. The 5-day strike pause expires Friday March 28 - the week's binary event.

2

An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll showed Senator Flávio Bolsonaro numerically ahead of President Lula in a hypothetical second-round runoff for the October 2026 election. Flávio leads 47.6% to 46.6%, within the 1-point margin of error. In four first-round scenarios where both appear as candidates, Lula reaches 46% in all while Flávio ranges from 36% to 42%. The market read is positive: a competitive pro-market candidacy reprices the fiscal trajectory and steepens the equity bid. The survey polled 5,028 people online between March 18–23.

3

MRV&Co (MRVE3) led the index at +8.01% after the FGTS board expanded Minha Casa Minha Vida income and financing limits. The broader housing sector rallied on the policy tailwind: Direcional, Cury, and Tenda were all flagged as beneficiaries by Safra. On the macro side, the government issued a medida provisória establishing R$15 billion in BNDES export credit lines, citing war-driven geopolitical instability. Breadth was extraordinary - only seven stocks closed negative on a day of 87% positive participation.

01Session Data

Metric	Value	Chg
Ibovespa Close	185,424.28	+1.60%
USD/BRL	R$ 5.2202	−0.67%
Brent Crude (session)	$102.22	−2.2%
S&P 500	6,591.90	+0.54%
DXY	99.66	+0.02%
VIX	26.95	−0.6%
Gold (session close)	$4,552	+3.41%
Iron Ore (Dalian, May)	806.5 CNY	−1.83%
Selic Rate	14.75%
Volume	R$ 27.91B

Top Gainers MRVE3 +8.01% R$8.36 VALE3 +1.86% R$79.55 PETR3 +0.56% R$52.24 PETR4 +0.49% R$47.50 Top Losers AZZA3 −2.01% R$26.26 ITUB4 −0.56% R$42.18 (Only 7 decliners in the index) 02Market Commentary

Today's Ibovespa market report covers a session that extended the post-ceasefire recovery to three consecutive gains and pushed the index back above 185,000 for the first time since early March. The B3 surged 1.60% to 185,424 as a US 15-point peace proposal to Iran, a pro-market presidential poll, and a R$15 billion export credit package converged to produce the broadest advance in weeks - only seven of the Ibovespa's constituents ended in the red. This is part of The Rio Times' daily coverage of B3 and Latin American financial markets.

The election poll is the overlooked catalyst. Flávio Bolsonaro 's competitiveness in a hypothetical second round introduces a market-friendly political bid that investors had largely discounted since the Bolsonaro family's legal troubles. Whether or not the margin is statistically significant, the signal - a credible centre-right candidacy - reprices the fiscal trajectory and encourages foreign inflows. The R$15B BNDES export credit MP addresses a genuine pain point for Brazilian exporters caught between Hormuz disruptions and a strengthening real.

The sector rotation tells the deeper story. Oil names participated but no longer led - PETR4 gained just 0.49% even as Brent dropped 2.2%. Housing (MRVE3 +8.01%) and mining (VALE3 +1.86%, despite Dalian iron ore falling 1.83%) drove the session. That breadth shift signals genuine reallocation rather than a mechanical short-squeeze. Wall Street reinforced the momentum with the Dow +0.66%, S&P 500 +0.54%, and Nasdaq +0.77%. Europe outperformed with the Stoxx 600 surging 1.42% to 587.49, while Japan's Nikkei led Asia with a 2.87% rally.

03Technical Analysis

The daily chart shows the index recaptured the upper Bollinger band cluster near 182,275–182,448 and closed decisively above the Ichimoku conversion line. The session high of 186,401 tested the Senkou Span B area at 183,831 before pulling back. Price sits above all key moving averages: the 50-day SMA cluster near 180,437–180,720 and the Ichimoku cloud (Span A at 180,437, Span B at 177,194). RSI reads 56.22 (fast) and 47.02 (slow), confirming the momentum shift from bearish to neutral-bullish. The MACD histogram has narrowed sharply to −15.56 from −192.34, approaching a bullish crossover.

The three-day recovery from 176,219 to 185,424 - a 5.2% gain - has recaptured the 50-day SMA, the Ichimoku cloud, and the upper Bollinger band in rapid succession. The key test is whether Thursday can consolidate above 185,000. A close above 186,401 (the session high) would clear the March 5 area and open the path toward 190,100.

Support & Resistance

Level	Points	Source
Resistance 2	190,100	Upper channel / Feb peak zone
Resistance 1	186,401	Session high / Senkou Span B area
Close	185,424	March 25, 2026
Support 1	182,275	Bollinger mid-band
Support 2	180,437	Ichimoku cloud top / 50-day SMA
Structural	174,795	200-day SMA

04Forward Look FIVE-DAY CLOCK → EXPIRES MARCH 28

Trump's strike pause is the week's binary event. A credible diplomatic extension sends Brent below $90 and the Ibovespa toward 188,000+. Failure resets the war premium immediately. Iran's ambiguous response - neither accepting nor formally rejecting the 15-point plan - leaves both outcomes in play.

ROTA DAS GERAIS AUCTION → MARCH 31

The 735 km concession of BR-116/BR-251 in Minas Gerais, with a projected 13.76% real IRR, tests infrastructure investor appetite amid geopolitical uncertainty. Watch ECOR3 for a sentiment read on the toll-road sector.

US Q4 GDP FINAL + PCE → THURSDAY/FRIDAY

Markets are pricing zero Fed cuts for 2026. A hot PCE print reinforces the hawkish narrative and caps the EM rally. A soft reading reopens the rate-cut conversation and provides a tailwind for Brazilian equities.

NEXT COPOM → APRIL 28–29

The DI curve prices ~75% probability of another 25 bps to 14.50%. A sustained oil decline below $95 reopens the 50 bps debate. The BCB's“magnitude and duration” language gives full flexibility.

05Verdict

The Ibovespa has now recovered 9,205 points - or 5.2% - from last Friday's 176,219 war-low. The three-day rally has recaptured the 50-day SMA, the Ichimoku cloud, and the upper Bollinger band. Breadth has expanded from five positive stocks (Friday) to 80+ (Wednesday). The previous Ibovespa market report identified the 200-day SMA as the line in the sand - it held, and the recovery has been aggressive. The election poll adds a structural bid that transcends the ceasefire trade.

Bias: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH - ceasefire-dependent. A close above 186,401 confirms the breakout. A failure at that level or the expiry of Trump's strike pause without diplomatic progress reinstates the bearish case and targets 180,437. Position for continuation with tight stops below 182,000.

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