Congo-Brazzaville Election: Sassou Nguesso Set To Extend His Rule

(MENAFN- The Conversation) Congolese will go to the polls on 15 March 2026 to elect their president, with a fractured opposition unable to present a single candidate. The Congolese Labor Party (PCT), in power since the end of the 1997 civil war, along with its allies, exerts extensive control over the state apparatus and electoral bodies. Citizen participation, particularly among young people aspiring for change, remains crucial for the legitimacy of the vote.

The credibility of the electoral process is also challenged with concerns about opposition access to public media, the reliability of the electoral register, and the impartiality of the Independent National Electoral Commission. Etanislas Ngodi has studied political systems and party dynamics in Congo-Brazzaville. He explains what's at stake in the presidential election.

What factors do you think will be most decisive for the election outcome?

This presidential election is marked by a structured and organised majority, a weakened opposition lacking unity, and a shrinking civic space.

The Congolese Labor Party and its allies have put in place conditions aimed at retaining power. This is achieved in particular through control of state apparatus including security agencies, electoral umpire and the courts.

Denis Sassou Nguesso, the ruling party candidate – first elected into office at the end of the civil war in 1997 – also relies on the creation of clientelist networks, cutting across nearly all social strata to secure a broad victory in the first round.

The Congolese opposition, on the other hand, is approaching the election in disarray. It has been unable to reach a consensus on a single candidate. This greatly reduces the chances of democratic change in the country.

Six opposition candidates representing smaller political parties are officially in the running. They are Joseph Kignoumbi Kia Mboungou, Nganguia Engambe-Anguios, Dave Uphreim Mafoula, Destin Melaine Gavet Elengo, Vivien Romain Manangou and Mabio Mavoungou Zinga.

There are also some historical opposition figures who have marked the political scene over the last ten years. They include Mathias Dzon, Clément Miérassa and Claudine Munari. They too failed to form a solid coalition capable of effectively challenging the ruling party.

The parliamentary opposition, including the Panafrican Union for Social Democracy (UPADS) and Union of Democrats and Humanists-Yuki (UDH-YUKI), called for a boycott. They highlighted concerns over electoral governance, such as the planned use of biometrics, the reliability of the voter register, and the impartiality of election management bodies.

Pre-election actions, including security crackdowns, intimidation and political pressure by authorities, clearly affected the electoral environment.

Read more: Africa's ageing leaders: succession race in Cameroon, Congo and Equatorial Guinea could destabilise the region

What impact could voter turnout have on the balance of power?

Afrobarometer surveys (rounds 9 and 10 ) conducted in the country in 2023 and 2024 show that 41.6% of respondents said they did not vote, for various reasons. These included not being registered on the electoral roll (13.1%).

Other reasons included lack of interest in politics and apathy towards voting (12.1%), lack of time (4.3%), and the absence of candidates or political parties close to the people (4.7%). Some respondents cited a lack of confidence in the electoral process, particularly in the election management bodies.

Past electoral experiences in Congo have shown how voter turnout remains a determining factor in legitimacy and credibility. One of the challenges of this election remains the turnout rate, which is a sign of popular legitimacy for the election and the winner.

What strategies have affected voter turnout in the recent election?

Debates surrounding the electoral process in the country generally focus on the discrepancy between the official figures announced by the Ministry of the Interior and observations on the ground made by civil society organisations and opposition supporters. They also focus on the impact of citizen disengagement.

However, the level of turnout is unlikely to change the political balance at the end of this election.

The opposition could argue that the election lacks legitimacy due to the absence of a credible challenger. Their boycott strategy could lead to low voter turnout and reinforce the disinterest of young and/or new voters who wants to change the political class.

In whats ways would the credibility of the electoral process influence the results?

The credibility of the election is a central concern, affecting both the outcome and its acceptance. Shortcomings in transparency, inclusiveness and fairness will fuel controversy, even among the losing parties.

The elections held regularly since 2002 have often been considered uncompetitive and lacking in transparency by observers including international election observation missions, Congolese civil society organisations, and some political analysts. Observers point in particular to major shortcomings in equitable access to the media, such as unbalanced coverage and restrictions or intimidation of certain candidates.

Concerns persist over the reliability of the electoral register, including audits, removal of duplicates, and transparency in voter lists. Trust in the Independent National Electoral Commission is also debated, particularly regarding its impartiality, appointment of members and logistical capacity.

How would Sassou Nguesso's long stay in office affect this election?

Sassou Nguesso first came into power in 1979, following a military coup. His rule was interrupted in 1992 after he lost the country's first plural elections. This was followed by a civil war and he returned into office as president in 1997 after the civil war.

Since then, he has remained in office. His party largely controls the state apparatus, including the media. Sassou Nguesso has shaped the institutional balance of power. He continues to influence appointments in the administration, the security forces, and key institutions like the parliament and the electoral commission.

The president's long stay in office is often presented by supporters of the ruling party as a guarantee of political experience, stability and institutional continuity.

For the opposition, Sassou Nguesso's long tenure reshapes the political landscape, sidelines historical figures, and fosters fragmented, personalised opposition. It also ensures that calls for political renewal and generational change grow louder.

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