Iran War Is Already Bolstering Russia In Ukraine

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The linchpin of the Russian economy is oil revenues, which are a critical component of the country's federal budget. Efforts by Ukrainian allies to limit Russia's ability to profit from oil revenues has resulted in oil reaching the lowest percentage of Russia's budget in 2025 in over five years.

But the US-Israeli war against Iran, however, is likely to reverse this trend and indirectly further Russia's war efforts.

The oil factor

Rising oil prices are the most immediate impact of the American-Israeli attack on Iran. In response to the attacks, Iran has shut down the Strait of Hormuz - a critical juncture in global energy responsible for one-fifth of the world's oil supply.

Iran has also targeted hydrocarbon production in surrounding states to further increase the strain upon the US, Israel and their allies.

Rising oil prices benefit Russia. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is having a disproportionate impact on Asia because the majority of the oil that goes through the strait is bound for Asian markets. That means Asian countries will have to look elsewhere to replace it.

The likely replacement source for Middle Eastern oil is Russia. Despite efforts by Ukraine's allies to impose a price cap on Russian oil, Russia's shadow fleet has succeeded in evading Western sanctions.

China and other Asian countries will seize upon relatively cheaper Russian oil to insulate their economies against the energy shocks created by the war on Iran.

The oil profits generated by Russia as a result will help it continue its war in Ukraine. Given the declining state of the Russian economy, this turn of events couldn't have happened at a better time for Putin.

The Ukraine-Russia conflict has become a war of attrition. The resources needed for victory go beyond the immediate resources that either Russia or Ukraine possess. Ukraine, in particular, needs its allies to focus on developments in the conflict.

The war on Iran, however, is diverting global attention from Russia-Ukraine. This works to Russia's advantage. America's bombing campaign against Iran is also rapidly exhausting its stockpile of munitions. US President Donald Trump has blamed former President Joe Biden for the shortage.

While the US has cut supplies to Ukraine under Trump, Ukraine still relies on its European allies purchasing munitions from the US due to Europe's atrophied arms industry. As the war drags on, Ukrainian needs are likely to take a backseat to American needs.