Iran's Missile Capability Is Significantly Degraded

The major US and NATO concern is that there are not enough interceptor missiles for a sustained conflict, meaning that (a) production of interceptor missiles must be stepped up and (b) the best defense is an effective offense; that is, the best solution is to destroy the enemy assets on the ground before they can be used.

One can expect that most of Iran's missile forces will be effectively neutralized in the next week, opening Iran up to systematic destruction of its military installations and equipment, strategic and tactical communications and key regime support units (especially Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and police units).

Iran's naval assets also are being liquidated and naval bases, including Bandar Abbas and Chahbahar, severely damaged. This means that Iran's ability to shut down the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf transit of oil is, at best, only a short term threat.

Meanwhile, degradation of Iran's leadership (and starting Monday, Hezbollah's) continues. The latest includes Monday's elimination of Iranian General Majid ibn al-Reza, who had been appointed acting defense minister of Iran.

Information for a detailed analysis was assembled with the help of AI sources with the author's own input.

Estimated status as of March 3, 2026:

S-300 / S-400-Largely Non-Functional. Most batteries near Tehran and Isfahan were targeted in the opening hours of February 28.

Bavar-373***-Severely Degraded. Iran's domestic long-range system was prioritized in the“Phase One” dismantling of defenses in Western Iran.

Point Defenses (Tor/Pantsir)Intermittent. -While some short-range systems remain active around high-value targets (like the Natanz nuclear site), they have been unable to prevent“stand-off” munitions from striking their targets.

***Bavar includes China's HQ-9B air defense system, alongside Chinese anti-stealth YLC-8B radars.

Breakdown by country

UAE: ~165 missiles

Kuwait: ~97 missiles

Qatar: ~65 missiles

Bahrain: ~45 missiles

According to military assessments from the IDF and IISS:

• Initial salvo (February 28): Iran launched approximately 150 to 200 ballistic missiles directly at Israel in the opening hours of the conflict. This barrage primarily featured Emad and Ghadir missiles. The IDF and U.S. forces (using a combination of Arrow-3, David's Sling, and SM-3 interceptors) shot down the vast majority of these threats. Initial reports suggest an interception rate of over 95% for the primary ballistic salvos.
• Subsequent waves (March 1–2): The frequency of large-scale strikes decreased significantly due to the destruction of roughly 50% of Iran's mobile launchers by US and Israeli air strikes.
• March 2 activity: On this day, Iran shifted to smaller,“coordinated barrages.” The IDF reported launches of between 9 and 30 missiles per attack throughout the day.

• The“Epic Fury” strike: In the first 24 hours of the conflict (February 28), US and Israeli forces conducted over 1,000 strikes. A significant portion of these targeted known transporter erector launchers (TELs) in western Iran to prevent launch cycles.
• Tactical shift: By March 2, the IDF noted that Iranian crews began abandoning launchers after firing a single missile to avoid being“sniped” by loitering munitions and drones that have established air superiority over Tehran and Western provinces.
• Underground assets: While many mobile surface launchers have been hit, Iran still retains a significant number of“static” or rail-based launchers inside its hardened underground facilities. These are much harder to destroy but offer less flexibility than the mobile units.

Despite the loss of roughly half of Iran's mobile fleet in just three days, its remaining 200+ launchers still represent a formidable threat. However, those losses are the primary reason the massive 150-missile waves seen on February 28 have devolved into smaller,“sporadic” barrages of 9 to 30 missiles as of today.

Based on military reports and tracking data as of March 3, 2026, the total number of Iranian drones launched is estimated to be between 600 and 800 units. Nearly all the Iranian drones aimed at Israel were shot down.

Israel's Iron Beam laser system reportedly also is doing well. The system was officially activated overnight on March 1-2 to intercept a barrage of rockets and drones launched by Hezbollah from Lebanon targeting the Haifa area and northern Israel. While specific“kill counts” are classified, defense sources indicate the laser successfully neutralized“scores of threats,” primarily focused on short-range rockets, mortars, and UAVs (drones).

Senior Asia Times correspondent Stephen Bryen is a former US deputy under secretary of defense. This article originally appeared on his Substack newsleter Weapons and Strategy.