Is The World Returning To Spheres Of Influence?

(MENAFN- Swissinfo) To justify its capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and its threats to acquire Greenland, the United States has declared authority over its hemisphere. Meanwhile, Russia pursues its war in Ukraine, and China claims Taiwan as part of its territory. Experts in international relations are worried about a return to spheres of influence. An explainer. This content was published on February 17, 2026 - 09:00 8 minutes

Based in Geneva, I cover the work of the United Nations and other international organisations there. My focus is on humanitarian aid, human rights, and peace diplomacy. I studied business and economics at the University of Lausanne before training as a journalist and joining SWI swissinfo in 2021.

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On January 3, after the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in Caracas, US President Donald Trump claimed that“American dominance in the Western hemisphere will never be questioned again”. His administration's new National Security Strategy, published in late 2025, explicitly revives the idea of the 1823 Monroe Doctrine, which places Latin America within a US sphere of influence.

According to many legal experts, Maduro's arrest violated international law. The US followed it almost immediately with threats to take over Greenland, a territory Trump considers critical for American security.

To some, Trump's rationale for these actions echoes Russian President Vladimir Putin's justification for invading Ukraine. Putin does not disguise his wish to re-establish Russian influence over former Soviet republics.

Given that China similarly considers“reunification” with Taiwan a strategic and historical necessity, more and more international-relations experts see a world returning to spheres of influence dominated by empires and rule of force.

What exactly are spheres of influence?

“When we talk about spheres of influence, we're referring to what existed before the current world order, that is before the Second World War, going back to the 19th century when the planet was divided into empires,” says Cédric Dupont, professor of international relations at the Geneva Graduate Institute.“It's a system that's the opposite of the current world order based on international law, [it's one] in which the [major] powers don't respect state sovereignty. If one of them believes – for reasons of economic, military, or human security – that it needs to intervene in its region, it does so without consulting anyone. And it's understood that each [power] does so within its sphere of influence.”

Are spheres of influence returning?

Dupont believes“Donald Trump's wish to control Venezuela is very much in line with the logic of spheres of influence”. But he adds that“it remains to be seen if the other powers – China and Russia – really agree that each can do as it wishes within its sphere”.

Beijing and Moscow both condemned the illegality of the US intervention in Venezuela. But neither China, which has invested billions of dollars in Venezuela, nor Russia, a close ally of the Maduro regime, intervened militarily. It's not clear whether this suggests they are giving the US carte blanche in the Americas.

>> Read our interview with an expert in international law who believes that the capture of Nicolás Maduro marks a turning point:

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This content was published on Jan 12, 2026 The capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by the US marks a turning point for the established world order. Is international law now a thing of the past? A Geneva-based expert explains.

Read more: More US interventions in Latin America can't be ruled out, says legal e

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