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Africa Intelligence Brief - January 2426, 2026
(MENAFN- The Rio Times) These three days show how“Africa risk” moves in practice. A single upstream contract can reset an oil investment cycle.
A militia order can shut down humanitarian and commercial corridors overnight. And a new compliance or corruption case can change how banks and partners price counterparty risk.
1. Libya - A 25-year oil development deal pulls in over $20 billion (Jan 24)
Libya signed a long-term oil development agreement with TotalEnergies and ConocoPhillips. Officials said it involves more than $20 billion in foreign-financed investment. The deal runs through Waha Oil and targets major capacity gains.
Why it matters: Long-duration terms are Libya's credibility test for global capital after years of instability.
2. Libya - Exploration bidding cycle restarts after a 17-year gap (Jan 24)
Libya's oil authority said results of its first exploration bidding round in more than 17 years will be announced on February 11. That matters because it creates a visible pipeline for new entrants and new signature bonuses.
Why it matters: A transparent licensing process is the fastest way to rerate investment confidence.
3. Mali - State takes majority control of a mining-explosives venture with a China supplier (Jan 25)
Mali said it took 51% in a new industrial-explosives venture with China's Auxin Chemical Technology. The plant is meant to supply civil-use explosives for mines and quarries, with construction targeted within 12 months.
Why it matters: Control of critical inputs can shift bargaining power across the entire mining value chain.
4. South Sudan - Military orders UN staff and civilians out of parts of Jonglei (Jan 25)
South Sudan's military ordered UN mission personnel and other aid groups to evacuate three counties in Jonglei ahead of an operation against opposition forces. This is a“clear-the-area” signal, not routine security guidance.
Why it matters: Evacuation orders freeze logistics, raise insurance costs, and disrupt any near-term investment planning.
5. DR Congo - Islamic State-linked militants kill at least 22 civilians in Ituri (Jan 26)
A UN internal report and local leaders said attackers struck a village in Ituri and abducted an unknown number of people. The incident fits a pattern of recurring mass-casualty raids in the east.
Why it matters: Persistent violence hardens the operating premium on roads, contractors, and mining-adjacent supply lines.
6. Kenya - Al Shabaab attack kills a local chief and a teacher near the Somalia border (Jan 26)
Kenyan police said militants killed two people in Hulugho and security forces launched a pursuit. This is a reminder that border counties remain exposed to cross-border insurgent pressure.
Why it matters: Border insecurity is a tax on trade routes, staffing, and public services.
7. Congo Republic - Norway files bribery charges tied to oil activity (Jan 26)
Norwegian police said they filed charges in a suspected oil bribery case involving Congo Republic. Even without convictions, the existence of charges changes counterparties' due-diligence posture.
Why it matters: Compliance shocks can choke deal flow faster than commodity prices can help it.
8. Ethiopia - Marburg outbreak officially declared over after at least nine deaths (Jan 26)
The World Health Organization said Ethiopia declared the end of its first-ever Marburg outbreak after enhanced surveillance and no new confirmed cases.
Why it matters: Containment restores confidence in travel, staffing, and continuity planning.
9. South Africa - Rand hits 16 per $1 for the first time since 2022, gold drives the move (Jan 26)
The rand touched 16 per $1 as gold prices hit record territory and mining shares rose. Markets also focused on the next central bank decision.
Why it matters: Currency strength lowers imported inflation pressure and can improve sovereign and corporate funding conditions.
10. Uganda - Opposition leader says soldiers raided his home and his wife was hospitalized (Jan 24)
Bobi Wine said troops invaded his residence while he remained in hiding after the election. The army leadership publicly denied wrongdoing in follow-on statements.
Why it matters: Post-election coercion risk can disrupt operations through mobility limits and fear-driven slowdowns.
A militia order can shut down humanitarian and commercial corridors overnight. And a new compliance or corruption case can change how banks and partners price counterparty risk.
1. Libya - A 25-year oil development deal pulls in over $20 billion (Jan 24)
Libya signed a long-term oil development agreement with TotalEnergies and ConocoPhillips. Officials said it involves more than $20 billion in foreign-financed investment. The deal runs through Waha Oil and targets major capacity gains.
Why it matters: Long-duration terms are Libya's credibility test for global capital after years of instability.
2. Libya - Exploration bidding cycle restarts after a 17-year gap (Jan 24)
Libya's oil authority said results of its first exploration bidding round in more than 17 years will be announced on February 11. That matters because it creates a visible pipeline for new entrants and new signature bonuses.
Why it matters: A transparent licensing process is the fastest way to rerate investment confidence.
3. Mali - State takes majority control of a mining-explosives venture with a China supplier (Jan 25)
Mali said it took 51% in a new industrial-explosives venture with China's Auxin Chemical Technology. The plant is meant to supply civil-use explosives for mines and quarries, with construction targeted within 12 months.
Why it matters: Control of critical inputs can shift bargaining power across the entire mining value chain.
4. South Sudan - Military orders UN staff and civilians out of parts of Jonglei (Jan 25)
South Sudan's military ordered UN mission personnel and other aid groups to evacuate three counties in Jonglei ahead of an operation against opposition forces. This is a“clear-the-area” signal, not routine security guidance.
Why it matters: Evacuation orders freeze logistics, raise insurance costs, and disrupt any near-term investment planning.
5. DR Congo - Islamic State-linked militants kill at least 22 civilians in Ituri (Jan 26)
A UN internal report and local leaders said attackers struck a village in Ituri and abducted an unknown number of people. The incident fits a pattern of recurring mass-casualty raids in the east.
Why it matters: Persistent violence hardens the operating premium on roads, contractors, and mining-adjacent supply lines.
6. Kenya - Al Shabaab attack kills a local chief and a teacher near the Somalia border (Jan 26)
Kenyan police said militants killed two people in Hulugho and security forces launched a pursuit. This is a reminder that border counties remain exposed to cross-border insurgent pressure.
Why it matters: Border insecurity is a tax on trade routes, staffing, and public services.
7. Congo Republic - Norway files bribery charges tied to oil activity (Jan 26)
Norwegian police said they filed charges in a suspected oil bribery case involving Congo Republic. Even without convictions, the existence of charges changes counterparties' due-diligence posture.
Why it matters: Compliance shocks can choke deal flow faster than commodity prices can help it.
8. Ethiopia - Marburg outbreak officially declared over after at least nine deaths (Jan 26)
The World Health Organization said Ethiopia declared the end of its first-ever Marburg outbreak after enhanced surveillance and no new confirmed cases.
Why it matters: Containment restores confidence in travel, staffing, and continuity planning.
9. South Africa - Rand hits 16 per $1 for the first time since 2022, gold drives the move (Jan 26)
The rand touched 16 per $1 as gold prices hit record territory and mining shares rose. Markets also focused on the next central bank decision.
Why it matters: Currency strength lowers imported inflation pressure and can improve sovereign and corporate funding conditions.
10. Uganda - Opposition leader says soldiers raided his home and his wife was hospitalized (Jan 24)
Bobi Wine said troops invaded his residence while he remained in hiding after the election. The army leadership publicly denied wrongdoing in follow-on statements.
Why it matters: Post-election coercion risk can disrupt operations through mobility limits and fear-driven slowdowns.
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