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Uncertainty Driven by Trump Tariffs Shapes 2025 Global Trade
(MENAFN) The global commerce landscape in 2025 endured unprecedented turbulence as US President Donald Trump deployed aggressive protectionist measures, launching tariff offensives against key economic allies—China, Canada, Mexico, and the EU.
Despite ongoing Supreme Court deliberations that could reshape several tariff policies, international trade has already absorbed significant shocks from the administration's actions.
Trump, who made tariffs a cornerstone of his campaign rhetoric, began his second presidential term on January 20 wielding trade penalties as leverage to resurrect American manufacturing capacity. Yet these maneuvers have intensified volatility across international markets.
The administration's pattern of imposing, pausing, and reimposing levies throughout 2025 created a climate of relentless unpredictability for global businesses.
According to Yale University Budget Lab data, the effective average tariff rate in the US skyrocketed from under 3% in late 2024 to 16.8% in 2025—marking the steepest level recorded since 1935.
The president wasted no time, ordering comprehensive trade policy audits by federal agencies on his inaugural day—the same 24-hour period during which he executed numerous executive directives. By February 1, he had activated additional 25% duties on Canadian and Mexican imports alongside 10% levies on Chinese goods, citing illegal fentanyl trafficking and unauthorized migration as justification.
After Canada and Mexico strengthened border enforcement measures, their tariffs received a 30-day reprieve, though the 10% Chinese levy activated on February 4. The 25% penalties on Canadian and Mexican imports ultimately took effect March 4, coinciding with an escalation of Chinese tariffs from 10% to 20%.
Just two days later, on March 6, Trump reversed direction, signing an exemption order for goods under the US–Mexico–Canada Agreement extending through April 2.
That same date, however, witnessed what the administration termed Liberation Day—the unveiling of comprehensive tariff architecture featuring a baseline 10% rate scaling upward to 50%.
Trump justified the variable rates as proportional responses to foreign trade barriers imposed on American exports. These reciprocal duties launched April 5, with elevated country-specific rates scheduled for April 9.
Another about-face arrived when Trump announced a 90-day suspension of supplementary tariffs affecting all nations—with China as the sole exception.
The US and China subsequently plunged into escalating economic combat, with Trump amplifying reciprocal Chinese tariffs to 125%—creating a combined rate of 145%—while Beijing answered with matching countermeasures.
Following this intensification, American and Chinese representatives convened in Geneva during May, negotiating a 90-day tariff reduction framework. Beginning May 14, the US temporarily lowered duties on Chinese merchandise to 30%.
Despite ongoing Supreme Court deliberations that could reshape several tariff policies, international trade has already absorbed significant shocks from the administration's actions.
Trump, who made tariffs a cornerstone of his campaign rhetoric, began his second presidential term on January 20 wielding trade penalties as leverage to resurrect American manufacturing capacity. Yet these maneuvers have intensified volatility across international markets.
The administration's pattern of imposing, pausing, and reimposing levies throughout 2025 created a climate of relentless unpredictability for global businesses.
According to Yale University Budget Lab data, the effective average tariff rate in the US skyrocketed from under 3% in late 2024 to 16.8% in 2025—marking the steepest level recorded since 1935.
The president wasted no time, ordering comprehensive trade policy audits by federal agencies on his inaugural day—the same 24-hour period during which he executed numerous executive directives. By February 1, he had activated additional 25% duties on Canadian and Mexican imports alongside 10% levies on Chinese goods, citing illegal fentanyl trafficking and unauthorized migration as justification.
After Canada and Mexico strengthened border enforcement measures, their tariffs received a 30-day reprieve, though the 10% Chinese levy activated on February 4. The 25% penalties on Canadian and Mexican imports ultimately took effect March 4, coinciding with an escalation of Chinese tariffs from 10% to 20%.
Just two days later, on March 6, Trump reversed direction, signing an exemption order for goods under the US–Mexico–Canada Agreement extending through April 2.
That same date, however, witnessed what the administration termed Liberation Day—the unveiling of comprehensive tariff architecture featuring a baseline 10% rate scaling upward to 50%.
Trump justified the variable rates as proportional responses to foreign trade barriers imposed on American exports. These reciprocal duties launched April 5, with elevated country-specific rates scheduled for April 9.
Another about-face arrived when Trump announced a 90-day suspension of supplementary tariffs affecting all nations—with China as the sole exception.
The US and China subsequently plunged into escalating economic combat, with Trump amplifying reciprocal Chinese tariffs to 125%—creating a combined rate of 145%—while Beijing answered with matching countermeasures.
Following this intensification, American and Chinese representatives convened in Geneva during May, negotiating a 90-day tariff reduction framework. Beginning May 14, the US temporarily lowered duties on Chinese merchandise to 30%.
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