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Analysts warn of rising global conflicts, tensions in 2026
(MENAFN) As 2025 draws to a close, analysts caution that 2026 may see heightened geopolitical tensions, ongoing wars, and emerging flashpoints across multiple regions. From Ukraine and Sudan to Gaza, alongside growing disputes involving Venezuela, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia, experts warn that the coming year is unlikely to bring reduced volatility.
Neophytos Loizides, professor of International Conflict Analysis at the University of Warwick, told Anadolu that the frequency of global conflicts is expected to increase in the coming years. “In the next few years, we will see more conflict now than at any other time in the next few decades,” he said, highlighting that these risks stem from simultaneous global shocks that governments appear increasingly unable to manage.
Taiwan remains one of the most sensitive areas, with fears of a potential Chinese invasion escalating tensions in the region and with Washington. China considers Taiwan a breakaway province, while Taipei maintains its independence stance. The US continues to support Taiwan under the Taiwan Relations Act and the Six Assurances.
Recent developments include an $11.1 billion US arms sale to Taiwan and an almost $40 billion defense plan unveiled by Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te. Chinese military activity in the region has surged, prompting concern from Taiwan and Japan. Loizides warned that a potential Chinese invasion could draw in regional actors, including Japan, Australia, the Philippines, and South Korea, creating a catastrophic scenario.
Relations between Washington and Caracas further deteriorated in 2025 following disputed elections, new sanctions, tanker seizures, and tougher enforcement of Venezuelan oil export restrictions. The US has accused Venezuelan officials of corruption and drug trafficking, while Caracas claims economic warfare and regime-change intentions.
US President Donald Trump announced a “total and complete blockade” of sanctioned oil tankers, including a recent seizure near Venezuelan waters. Experts note the risk of direct confrontation remains, though it is considered less likely than the Taiwan scenario.
The fragile Gaza ceasefire, in effect since October 2025, has seen violations by Israel, with 411 Palestinians killed and 1,112 injured since the truce began. The overall death toll from the conflict since October 2023 exceeds 71,000. Loizides noted that Israel has little incentive to maintain agreements, warning of continued human rights violations. Rob Geist Pinfold of King’s College London echoed the view, calling it a “slow bleed, low-intensity conflict” with no signs of a durable resolution.
Sudan’s civil war between the national army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) enters its third year with no end in sight. The RSF controls most of Darfur, while the army holds key areas in the south, north, east, and the capital Khartoum. Loizides said unresolved grievances and the failure to pursue decentralization or federalism continue to fuel the conflict.
Experts are skeptical about a full resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war. Loizides suggested that any agreement may only freeze the conflict, recognizing de facto Russian control over some territories without legal recognition, leaving a fragile situation prone to escalation.
Several conflicts remain unresolved, including tensions between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as hostility between Israel and Iran following a June 2025 confrontation triggered by Israeli airstrikes on Iranian facilities. In Syria, Israel continues to view the country as a threat, with little diplomatic engagement.
Analysts highlighted additional vulnerable regions, especially in Africa and Asia. Conflicts in Congo, Sudan, Ethiopia, and the Tigray region remain unresolved and prone to escalation. In South Asia, tensions between Pakistan and India escalated in April 2025 following an attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, nearly triggering major conflict.
Southeast Asia also faces instability, with Thailand and Cambodia engaging in armed clashes along their border in July 2025 before a ceasefire was enforced.
Experts caution that 2026 will likely see continued geopolitical strain, fragile ceasefires, and unresolved conflicts, with multiple regions facing heightened risks of escalation and instability.
Neophytos Loizides, professor of International Conflict Analysis at the University of Warwick, told Anadolu that the frequency of global conflicts is expected to increase in the coming years. “In the next few years, we will see more conflict now than at any other time in the next few decades,” he said, highlighting that these risks stem from simultaneous global shocks that governments appear increasingly unable to manage.
Taiwan remains one of the most sensitive areas, with fears of a potential Chinese invasion escalating tensions in the region and with Washington. China considers Taiwan a breakaway province, while Taipei maintains its independence stance. The US continues to support Taiwan under the Taiwan Relations Act and the Six Assurances.
Recent developments include an $11.1 billion US arms sale to Taiwan and an almost $40 billion defense plan unveiled by Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te. Chinese military activity in the region has surged, prompting concern from Taiwan and Japan. Loizides warned that a potential Chinese invasion could draw in regional actors, including Japan, Australia, the Philippines, and South Korea, creating a catastrophic scenario.
Relations between Washington and Caracas further deteriorated in 2025 following disputed elections, new sanctions, tanker seizures, and tougher enforcement of Venezuelan oil export restrictions. The US has accused Venezuelan officials of corruption and drug trafficking, while Caracas claims economic warfare and regime-change intentions.
US President Donald Trump announced a “total and complete blockade” of sanctioned oil tankers, including a recent seizure near Venezuelan waters. Experts note the risk of direct confrontation remains, though it is considered less likely than the Taiwan scenario.
The fragile Gaza ceasefire, in effect since October 2025, has seen violations by Israel, with 411 Palestinians killed and 1,112 injured since the truce began. The overall death toll from the conflict since October 2023 exceeds 71,000. Loizides noted that Israel has little incentive to maintain agreements, warning of continued human rights violations. Rob Geist Pinfold of King’s College London echoed the view, calling it a “slow bleed, low-intensity conflict” with no signs of a durable resolution.
Sudan’s civil war between the national army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) enters its third year with no end in sight. The RSF controls most of Darfur, while the army holds key areas in the south, north, east, and the capital Khartoum. Loizides said unresolved grievances and the failure to pursue decentralization or federalism continue to fuel the conflict.
Experts are skeptical about a full resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war. Loizides suggested that any agreement may only freeze the conflict, recognizing de facto Russian control over some territories without legal recognition, leaving a fragile situation prone to escalation.
Several conflicts remain unresolved, including tensions between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as hostility between Israel and Iran following a June 2025 confrontation triggered by Israeli airstrikes on Iranian facilities. In Syria, Israel continues to view the country as a threat, with little diplomatic engagement.
Analysts highlighted additional vulnerable regions, especially in Africa and Asia. Conflicts in Congo, Sudan, Ethiopia, and the Tigray region remain unresolved and prone to escalation. In South Asia, tensions between Pakistan and India escalated in April 2025 following an attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, nearly triggering major conflict.
Southeast Asia also faces instability, with Thailand and Cambodia engaging in armed clashes along their border in July 2025 before a ceasefire was enforced.
Experts caution that 2026 will likely see continued geopolitical strain, fragile ceasefires, and unresolved conflicts, with multiple regions facing heightened risks of escalation and instability.
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