Brazil's Financial Morning Call For December 10, 2025

2025-12-10 05:00:49

(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Brazil's financial markets open today with the Ibovespa slipping 0.13% to 157,981 points amid 'Super Wednesday' jitters. Escalating 'Flávio risk' from Senator Flávio Bolsonaro's 'irreversible' 2026 presidential bid is adding pressure.

His bid is now backed by São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas' loyalty pledge over his own ambitions. The move signals a fractured center-right that boosts Lula's re-election odds and rattles investor confidence.

The IMF warns that Brazil's public debt, now at 89% of GDP and the highest among emerging markets outside China, is surging amid high interest rates and persistent deficits.

This trajectory risks heavier taxes, weaker public services, and greater vulnerability to shocks without fiscal reforms. The situation is also exacerbating scrutiny on top judge Alexandre de Moraes through the U.S. Granite Act's free-speech backlash against his global platform censorship orders.

Power struggles intensify inside Congress as the Chamber fast-tracks expulsions of four lawmakers - Bolsonaro allies Carla Zambelli, Eduardo Bolsonaro, and Alexandre Ramagem, plus critic Glauber Braga - while advancing the "dosimetry" bill to slash sentences for January 8 coup convicts, including Jair Bolsonaro's potential 27-year term, testing institutional discipline.

Inflation edges closer to the Central Bank's 3% ±1.5% target with November IPCA expected at 4.49% YoY, but sticky services and fiscal slippage sustain 15% Selic hawkishness, squeezing credit amid Chinese EV competition stalling auto production >8% YoY.

Yet robust foreign inflows of R$27–28 billion to B3 bolster liquidity via arbitrage, supporting records despite election noise, low unemployment masking productivity gaps, and Correios' R$6.05 billion nine-month loss prompting a R$20 billion loan for redundancies and refinancing to stem taxpayer burdens.

This unfolds against global policy pivots, with the Fed's anticipated 0.25% cut to 3.75% and Copom's Selic hold at 15% with 2026 easing hints, as the dollar eases to R$5.43 on tempered politics and real support near R$5.30.
Economic Agenda for December 10, 2025
Times in BRT (Brasília Time)
Brazil

07:00 AM BRT – CPI (MoM) (Nov) Cons: 0.20% Prev: 0.09%
07:00 AM BRT – CPI (YoY) (Nov) Cons: 4.49% Prev: 4.68%
07:00 AM BRT – Brazilian IPCA Inflation Index SA (MoM) (Nov) Prev: 0.07%
11:00 AM BRT – Brazil Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Dec) Prev: 52.78
16:30 PM BRT – Interest Rate Decision Cons: 15.00% Prev: 15.00%
Implication: Cooling IPCA to 4.49% YoY reinforces Copom's hold at 15% Selic with dovish 2026 hints on target return, easing credit strains but sticky core could amplify fiscal noise from IMF debt warnings and dosimetry bill, sustaining Ibovespa volatility near 158k if PCSI signals resilient sentiment amid political brinkmanship.

Mexico

11:00 AM BRT – Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (MoM) (Dec) Prev: 51.72
Implication: Steady PCSI underscores Banxico's 7.25% yields and nearshoring resilience against Trump tariff threats, but softening could cap MXN gains near 18.19/USD.

United States

08:30 AM BRT – Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q3) Cons: 0.9% Prev: 0.9%
14:00 PM BRT – Fed Interest Rate Decision Cons: 3.75% Prev: 4.00%
14:00 PM BRT – FOMC Economic Projections & Statement
Implication: Steady employment costs lock in Fed's 0.25% cut with hawkish guidance on inflation divergence, softening yields and boosting BRL inflows via dollar weakness.

Norway

02:00 AM BRT – NOK CPI (YoY) (Nov) Act: 3.0% Cons: 2.7% Prev: 3.1%
02:00 AM BRT – NOK Core CPI YTD (Nov) Act: 3.0% Cons: 3.1% Prev: 3.4%
02:00 AM BRT – NOK Core Inflation (MoM) (Nov) Act: -0.3% Prev: 0.6%
Implication: Cooling CPI sustains Norges Bank dovishness, pressuring NOK lower and favoring commodity currencies like BRL.

Italy

04:00 AM BRT – Italian Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) Cons: -0.3% Prev: 2.8%
04:00 AM BRT – Italian Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct) Cons: 0.2% Prev: 1.5%
05:10 AM BRT – Italian 12-Month BOT Auction Prev: 2.063%
Implication: Contracting IP reinforces ECB easing bias, pressuring EUR lower and supporting LatAm carry trades.

United Kingdom

05:45 AM BRT – BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
Implication: Bailey's tone will gauge BoE hawkishness, with dovish hints capping GBP upside and favoring EM yields.

Canada

09:45 AM BRT – BoC Interest Rate Decision Cons: 2.25% Prev: 2.25%
09:45 AM BRT – BoC Rate Statement
10:30 AM BRT – BOC Press Conference
Implication: Expected hold with statement cues on inflation locks in CAD stability, aiding BRL via global risk-on.

Japan

18:50 PM BRT – BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions (Q4) Cons: 4.1 Prev: 3.8
18:50 PM BRT – Foreign Bonds Buying Prev: -771.3B
18:50 PM BRT – Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks Prev: 655.6B
Implication: Improving conditions bolster BOJ normalization signals, capping yen rebound risks and supporting BRL.

Australia

19:30 PM BRT – Employment Change (Nov) Cons: 20.3K Prev: 42.2K
19:30 PM BRT – Unemployment Rate (Nov) Cons: 4.4% Prev: 4.3%
19:30 PM BRT – Participation Rate (Nov) Prev: 67.0%
Implication: Softer jobs data adds to RBA cut bets, weakening AUD and aiding BRL carry.

Why These Events Matter: Brazil's IPCA at 07:00 AM and Copom decision at 04:30 PM are pivotal, with expected 4.49% YoY cooling validating Selic hold-with-hints amid IMF debt alarms and congressional dosimetry debates, potentially easing Ibovespa pauses near 158,000 if confirms target return and cushions "Flávio risk" from Tarcísio's backing. The Fed's cut and projections reinforce global disinflation tailwinds for LatAm carry.
Brazil's Markets Yesterday
The Ibovespa slipped 0.13% to 157,981 points as traders braced for Fed and Copom decisions and priced in“Flávio risk”.

Petrobras, Vale and exporters cushioned the index, while retailers and Raízen led declines. Medium-term charts stay bullish, but daily signals show a pause.

Read more
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. markets closed mixed on Tuesday, December 9, 2025, with the S&P 500 down 0.1% to 6,840.51, the Dow off 0.4% to 47,560.29, and the Nasdaq rising 0.1% to 23,576.49. JPMorgan Chase fell 4.7% on higher expense forecasts; Nvidia slipped 0.3% on China chip worries.

Read more
Mexico's Market Yesterday
The Mexican peso firmed to ~18.19 per dollar; the S&P/BMV IPC added 0.26% to 63,695 points, led by financials and infrastructure.

Read more
Argentina's Market Yesterday
The Argentine peso held near 1,440 wholesale; the Merval fell 2% on post-rally fatigue.

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Colombia's Market Yesterday
The Colombian peso firmed to ~3,840 per dollar; the COLCAP added 0.5% to record 2,121 points.

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Chile's Market Yesterday
The Chilean peso hovered near 925–926 per dollar; the IPSA slipped 0.4% to 10,180 points.

Read more
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The real weakened slightly to R$5.4359 as "Flávio risk", Tarcísio's backing, and dosimetry bill advances offset Fed cut bets and Copom's expected 15% hold with 2026 easing path.

Read more
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin clawed above $92,600 on whale buys and $716M global ETP inflows; Ether +7% to ~$3,320. Thinner liquidity masks nervous sentiment ahead of Fed.

Read more
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Brazil's auto sector stalls on high 15% Selic credit strains, policy delays, and Chinese EV surge (>50% sales growth to 11% share); foreign inflows of R$27–28B to B3 boost liquidity, but election risks from Flávio's bid and Tarcísio's loyalty could reverse flows amid IMF debt surge to 89% GDP.
Key Developments

Inflation edges to 4.4% year-end inside target band for first time in four years.
High Selic and Chinese EVs knock auto production down >8% YoY.
Strongest foreign buying in years injects R$27–28B net to B3 in 2025.
Flávio Bolsonaro leverages 2026 bid for January 8 amnesty.
Correios posts R$6.05B loss Jan-Sep, seeks R$20B loan package.

IMF flags Brazil's 89% GDP debt as EM outlier.

Congress advances expulsions and dosimetry bill for coup convicts.

Tarcísio backs Flávio for 2026, fracturing right-wing.

U.S. Granite Act targets Justice Moraes' global censorship orders.

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