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Global Trade Expected to Reach Historic USD35T
(MENAFN) The UN projected Tuesday that international commerce will achieve an unprecedented $35 trillion peak in 2025, overcoming geopolitical friction.
"The new data confirm that trade continued expanding through the second half of 2025, even as geopolitical tensions, higher costs, and uneven global demand slowed momentum," the UN Trade and Development Organization (UNCTAD) said in a statement.
The agency forecasts worldwide trade will expand 7% in 2025, adding $2.2 trillion and establishing a fresh record. Third-quarter global trade advanced 2.5% versus the preceding quarter. Expansion is anticipated to persist through the final quarter, albeit at a reduced rate.
"If projections hold, goods would add about $1.5 trillion to this year's total and services $750 billion, consistent with an overall 7% annual increase," it noted.
Highlighting a substantial shift in pricing dynamics, the organization stated costs are now expected to decrease following two quarters where trade valuations rose partly from escalating merchandise prices.
"As a result, the increase in global trade at the end of 2025 comes from higher volumes – the actual quantity of goods shipped – rather than from price increases. This points to stable demand even as inflation eases," it noted.
East Asia registered the steepest export growth among regions at 9% year-over-year, with intra-regional commerce surging 10%. Africa witnessed exports climb 6% and imports jump 10%, while South-South trade increased nearly 8%, demonstrating strengthening connections between developing nations.
Among individual economies, Brazil and South Africa emerged as dominant players in South America and Africa respectively, while China and South Korea stood out in East Asia.
Manufacturing output rose 10% throughout the year, with electronics spearheading gains at 14% driven by artificial intelligence (AI) demand.
Cereals and fruit and vegetable shipments soared 11% in the third quarter, signaling substantial agricultural sector expansion. Fossil fuel commerce declined amid falling prices, and automotive trade dropped 4%.
"The new data confirm that trade continued expanding through the second half of 2025, even as geopolitical tensions, higher costs, and uneven global demand slowed momentum," the UN Trade and Development Organization (UNCTAD) said in a statement.
The agency forecasts worldwide trade will expand 7% in 2025, adding $2.2 trillion and establishing a fresh record. Third-quarter global trade advanced 2.5% versus the preceding quarter. Expansion is anticipated to persist through the final quarter, albeit at a reduced rate.
"If projections hold, goods would add about $1.5 trillion to this year's total and services $750 billion, consistent with an overall 7% annual increase," it noted.
Highlighting a substantial shift in pricing dynamics, the organization stated costs are now expected to decrease following two quarters where trade valuations rose partly from escalating merchandise prices.
"As a result, the increase in global trade at the end of 2025 comes from higher volumes – the actual quantity of goods shipped – rather than from price increases. This points to stable demand even as inflation eases," it noted.
East Asia registered the steepest export growth among regions at 9% year-over-year, with intra-regional commerce surging 10%. Africa witnessed exports climb 6% and imports jump 10%, while South-South trade increased nearly 8%, demonstrating strengthening connections between developing nations.
Among individual economies, Brazil and South Africa emerged as dominant players in South America and Africa respectively, while China and South Korea stood out in East Asia.
Manufacturing output rose 10% throughout the year, with electronics spearheading gains at 14% driven by artificial intelligence (AI) demand.
Cereals and fruit and vegetable shipments soared 11% in the third quarter, signaling substantial agricultural sector expansion. Fossil fuel commerce declined amid falling prices, and automotive trade dropped 4%.
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