Modest Economic Growth Forecasted For Switzerland In 2026

Persistent uncertainty and a weak global investment cycle are likely to dampen the export and capital goods industry, the Basel-based institute indicated on Tuesday.

In concrete terms, as already forecasted in August, the market research institute expects Swiss gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 0.9% in 2026, excluding sporting events. After an already moderate increase of 1.4% in 2025, Switzerland would experience a further marked slowdown.

The recent declaration of intent in the area of tariffs communicated by the governments of Switzerland and the United States is certainly a welcome relief and in particular reduces the competitive disadvantages of Swiss exporting companies compared to those of comparable foreign countries, says a statement issued today. However, this agreement had already been anticipated in earlier forecasts: without it, the outlook for 2026 would be lower – up to 0.3 percentage points less growth.

Despite the expected reduction, tariffs at the border will remain well above the level of early 2025, BAK Economics points out. Moreover, the US government's trade policy remains unpredictable.

The investment commitments made in this context – some Swiss companies plan to make direct investments in the US to the tune of $200 billion (CHF161 billion at current exchange rates) – entail two interrelated economic risks:“If the commitments are not fulfilled, there is a risk of new punitive tariffs being introduced. If, on the other hand, they are implemented to the agreed extent, there is a risk of a shift of investments to the USA” to the detriment of investments in Switzerland.

This content was published on Nov 18, 2025 Swiss pharma made massive investment promises to the US that are fueling anxiety about the industry's future in Switzerland.