By Dr. Ashraf Zainabi

Budgam has always seemed predictable in politics. For nearly fifty years, it stood as a loyal friend of the National Conference. Generations grew up calling it a“safe seat,” a fortress immune to change. That image shattered in November 2025.

The bypoll turned Budgam into a dramatic stage for the Aga against Aga contest.

Aga Muntazir of the Peoples Democratic Party, Aga Mehmood of the National Conference, and Aga Mohsin of the BJP all stood in the same constituency, representing three different political moods.

On the surface, it could be dismissed as coincidence. Below the surface, it was a loud message: Budgam had split. And this division was not accidental.

It traces back to a political choice Omar Abdullah made last year. He contested Budgam and Ganderbal and then chose to vacate Budgam, despite winning there with more votes. The way the decision was made, the timing, and the silence that followed left voters feeling abandoned.

Budgam's voters are emotional and expect reciprocity. When Omar picked Budgam as one of his seats, they felt chosen. When he left, they felt discarded. In politics, emotion is currency. A single misstep eroded the fifty-year bond between the NC and the constituency.

The three-way Aga contest was only the visible layer of a deeper fracture.

The Agas have long shaped Budgam's politics. They carry social weight, religious authority, and community trust. This election was unprecedented: three Agas on three different platforms. Parties saw a vacuum and rushed to fill it.

The NC, which relied on history and loyalty, faced a challenge to its narrative. The PDP, seeking a comeback, promised voters a representative who would stay rather than abandon them. The BJP, testing new ground in central Kashmir, offered a bold, symbolic presence.

Aga Mehmood of NC carried the weight of legacy. He tried to repair the emotional damage left by Omar's choice, but repairing trust is harder than maintaining it.

Aga Muntazir of PDP turned the moment into opportunity, appealing to voters who felt humiliated by last year's decision.

Aga Mohsin of BJP represented experimentation, testing whether ideological boundaries had softened in a constituency once seen as impenetrable.

MENAFN15112025000215011059ID1110348521