The National Democratic Alliance's decimating victory in Bihar has done more than just reaffirm Nitish Kumar's political heft. It has thrust the BJP into a position of dominance strong enough to potentially form a government in Patna even without its long-time ally. But the bigger question now hangs heavy over the eastern skies: can this political storm drift eastward and upset Mamata Banerjee's carefully built fortress in West Bengal?

Political observers remain divided. Bengal's intensely local equations, they say, could make Bihar's template both instructive and misleading. The answer, according to experts, will depend on how efficiently Bengal's warring factions navigate three critical battlefronts: the SIR (Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls), welfare politics, and women voters.

After Bihar, Bengal Becomes the BJP's Next Frontier

Barely had the results settled in Bihar when senior BJP leader Giriraj Singh declared the new war cry:“Bengal's next.” His stark warning for Mamata Banerjee - to“brace for the worst” - echoed through Bengal's political corridors, amplified by state leaders like Suvendu Adhikari.

The Trinamool Congress, for its part, responded with its familiar refrain - that Bengal's political chemistry is“different” - but analysts warn that this time, customary rebuttals may not be enough.

What Bihar Revealed: Women, Welfare, and a Quiet Wave

Political analyst Subhamoy Maitra believes the Bihar mandate is deeply instructive, especially in the way women voters responded to Nitish Kumar's last-minute cash transfers.

“Every election result has a set of variable inputs which go into the building of those particular polls. In Bihar, the significantly high turnout of women voters in many pockets which followed the erstwhile Nitish Kumar government's dole of Rs 10,000 into their bank accounts seems to have been the game changer,” Maitra observed.

Even a cursory look at district-wise results validates this argument. In regions where women dominated electorally:

• Kosi (12.5% more women voters): NDA won 77% of seats
• Darbhanga (11.9% more women voters): NDA won 73% of seats
• But in areas where men turned out marginally more - like Patna and Magadh - the NDA's lead shrank dramatically to 30% and 23%.

Maitra predicts Mamata Banerjee will not miss this signal:“I will not be surprised if Mamata Banerjee follows Nitish Kumar's suit and announces more monetary schemes for women who have traditionally been her strong support base in Bengal.”

He adds that the Bihar verdict will trigger a“ushering in of dole politics, especially for women, not just in Bengal but for all the other election-bound states of the country.”

BJP Senses Momentum, TMC Sees a Mirage

Poll expert Biswanath Chakraborty believes the Bihar whitewash now allows the BJP to unleash a more aggressive campaign in Bengal.

“The convincing victory of the Nitish Kumar-led alliance would certainly offer better stability to the BJP-led NDA at the Centre. That means there will be less dependence of the saffron camp on Mamata Banerjee which, in turn, would mean they can now launch a no-holds barred political attack on the TMC in the run-up to the state polls.”

The BJP's Bengal unit has already begun highlighting the Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls (SIR) - an exercise that came under intense political scrutiny in Bihar.

Suvendu Adhikari was quick to connect the dots:“Bengal, like Bihar, will poll next year on electoral rolls cleaned up by the SIR and that will make the difference. What Nandigram did in 2021, the rest of the state will imitate in 2026.”

But Chakraborty cautions against premature conclusions. He points to history:

“The Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee-led Left Front government had returned to power with an overwhelming majority in the state in 2006 after the last SIR was conducted in 2002. If the Left can, there's no reason to presume that the TMC can't.”

The X-Factor: BJP's Internal Faultlines in Bengal

Maitra introduces another variable - one that has nothing to do with voters.

He cites recent remarks from former judge-turned-BJP MP Abhijit Gangopadhyay, who alleged that corruption cases against TMC leaders were“not being properly pursued by probe agencies” and that the party suffers from the“presence of too many non-Bengali leaders... harming its prospects.”

Maitra's verdict is blunt:“Unlike in Bihar, we are yet to know the fallout of SIR in Bengal. There is no data at hand currently to deduce who would stand to benefit from the exercise. Instead, the BJP should answer judge Gangopadhyay's questions on whether it is serious about winning elections here.”

The War of Words Begins Early

Giriraj Singh escalated tensions further with an incendiary allegation:

He said Mamata Banerjee's rule was secured by“piggybacking on Rohingyas and Bangladeshis,” adding that her days in power were numbered.

The TMC's response was swift and blistering.

Sashi Panja declared:“The BJP is a poison tree and the words pouring from the mouths of its leaders are equally venomous. Unable to withstand the harmony with which people live in Bengal and in his bid to malign Bengalis, Singh crossed courtesy boundaries to label the people here as Rohingyas and Bangladeshis.”

But the BJP didn't step back. Union minister Sukanta Majumder jumped in, proclaiming on X that after Bihar and Odisha,“it's Bengal's turn next.” The TMC shot back with a two-word retort:“Dream on.”

What Comes Next?

The Bihar mandate has undoubtedly redrawn national political momentum. For the BJP, it is a signal of renewed strength; for the TMC, a warning that complacency could prove costly. But Bengal remains a complex, layered battlefield - a state where identity, culture, welfare, and political memory intersect in unpredictable ways.

As both sides sharpen their strategies, one thing is clear: the road to 2026 will be loud, bitter, and fought in every alley of Bengal's political imagination.

And whether Bihar's script can be replicated eastwards remains the biggest riddle of all.

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