Gold price has stabilised around $4,000 per ounce, witnessing strong buying at $3,900, as global institutions stick to their forecast of $5,000.

The precious metal recently hit an all-time high in October when it nearly touched $4,380 per ounce driven by central bank demand, geopolitical volatility, and the tariff row, among other factors. On the weekend, gold closed at $4,001.21 per ounce, up 0.44 per cent. In Dubai, 24K and 22K closed at Dh482 and Dh446.25 per gram, respectively.

Stay up to date with the latest news. Follow KT on WhatsApp Channels.

“Gold has stabilised around the $4,000 mark over the last ten days, ending the week at roughly the same level as it started. Attempts by sellers to push the price below $3,900 are meeting with impressive buying interest. This is facilitated by the US Supreme Court, which is considering the illegality of US tariffs. If President Donald Trump is defeated, the money will have to be returned. As a result, the budget deficit and public debt will increase, leading to chaos in the financial markets. Concerns about this are prompting investors to seek refuge in safe-haven assets. However, this all appears to be an attempt to play the old card, which can only delay the inevitable,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro.

According to estimates by the World Gold Council, central bank purchases of bullion in 2025 are expected to amount to 750-900 tonnes. In each of the previous three years, the figure exceeded 1,000 tonnes.

“China's cancellation of VAT credits for precious metal retailers will increase prices for the jewellery industry and lead to a decline in demand. ETF stocks are falling. HSBC, Bank of America, and Societe Generale continue to stick to their forecasts of $5,000 per ounce. However, the gold rally has broken down. Selling on the rise is becoming relevant,” said Kuptsikevich.

Joseph Dahrieh, managing principal at Tickmill, said gold is hovering near the key $4,000 per ounce level, as renewed expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut supported the metal.

“Markets now assign around a 65 per cent probability of another rate cut in December. Still, caution from Federal Reserve officials such as Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, who warned against premature easing amid incomplete inflation data, could cap further gains, keeping yields supported and limiting upside for gold. Meanwhile, persistent geopolitical instability continued to bolster safe-haven demand. Increasing tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East underscored the fragile security backdrop that continues to underpin bullion's appeal,” added Dahrieh.

According to Ahmad Assiri, research strategist at Pepperstone, gold continues to consolidate below the $4,000-per-ounce level, showing few signs of distress.“The structure below $4,000 remains technically healthy with the 50-day moving average catching up to spot levels, a setup that has attracted renewed inflows from technical traders six times this year,” added Assiri.

MENAFN09112025000049011007ID1110317363