The US government has also been shuttered since October 1. Government agencies have been closed to the public, and hundreds of thousands of government employees are going without paychecks, while thousands of others have been laid off.

Millions of Americans have been affected by flight delays or cancellations due to air traffic controller staffing issues. And food stamps to 42 million Americans have been suspended, with the Trump administration only relenting to provide partial payments in response to a court order.

Closing the government was not solely the doing of Trump and the Republicans in Congress. After nearly a year of lying prostrate and appearing pathetically ineffective in responding to Trump and his agenda, the Democrats finally got off the mat to fight back.

Of all the issues with Trump's so-called“One Big Beautiful Bill” – which contained huge tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations, huge spending cuts for Medicaid, huge increases in spending to control immigration, more funding for fossil fuels and an increase in the debt ceiling – Democrats seized on one glaring omission from the legislation.

At the end of this year, subsidies that more than 24 million Americans rely on to purchase health insurance under Obamacare are due to expire. As a result, millions are projected to lose their health care coverage.

That is the cross Democrats chose to die on. They've told the Trump administration: you want to keep the government open? Keep the insurance subsidies flowing. Fix it now.

Republicans in Congress have had no interest in caving in to Democratic demands. They've argued that Democrats must agree to reopen the government before they'll discuss the subsidies. Their calculation: Voters will turn on the Democrats for the turmoil caused by the shutdown.

Trump wanted nothing to do with any such negotiations, either. Two days before the elections, he said he“won't be extorted.”

But a recent poll shows 52% of Americans blame Trump and the Republicans for the shutdown, compared with 42% who blame Democrats.

The wins in Virginia and New Jersey drove this message home. Yes, the Democrats triggered the current shutdown. But the president owns the economy. For better or worse, Trump will own the economy going into next year's midterm elections, too.

How can the Democrats get out of the shutdown box with a win? With the leverage they just gained in the elections.

If Republicans stonewall after these election defeats they'll be hurt even more.

There are two routes forward.

First, Democrats could reach an agreement with the Republicans on a fix to the health insurance issue, with a vote in Congress by Christmas to get the subsidies restored. A bipartisan compromise appears now to be in the works.

Second, if such an agreement cannot be reached, the Democrats can introduce a bill to restore the subsidies on their own, with an up-or-down vote in both the House and Senate. If this got voted down, the Democrats would then have a winning issue to take to the midterm elections next November. The voters would know whom to blame – and whom to reward.

House Speaker Mike Johnson has prevented the House from meeting for more than six weeks, but at some point it has to come back in session to vote to reopen the government.

Trump is also insisting the Senate change its rules to allow a simple majority to be able to reopen the government – without any compromises on health insurance subsidies. But this is not a viable political option after these election results.

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Two other Democrats take center stage

There were two other big Democratic winners on Tuesday. California voters approved a redistricting plan intended to partially offset Republicans' gerrymandering of congressional electorates across the country for the midterm elections.

It was a high-risk strategy by California Governor Gavin Newsom, and it paid off handsomely: Newsom is now considered the frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028.

California Governor Gavi Newsom. Image: X Screengrab

And Mamdani, a Muslim socialist, was elected the Democratic mayor of New York City. Trump will no doubt continue to rubbish him as a communist radical extremist and follow through on his threats to cut federal funding for the largest city in the US.

Mamdani's victory also places him on the national stage, but not center stage. The Sinatra doctrine from his hit song“New York, New York” -“If I can make it there, I'll make it anywhere” - does not quite apply in this situation.

To take back Congress next year and the White House in 2028, the Democrats will need all kinds of flowers to bloom - not just Mamdani's bouquet. In 2028, the party is going to have to shop in a bigger greenhouse.

Bruce Wolpe is a non-resident senior fellow at the United States Study Centre, University of Sydney.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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