(MENAFN- Live Mint) In a striking turn for one of the world's largest education corridors, Canada rejected nearly three out of every four study-permit applications from Indian nationals in August 2025, fuelling debate over whether the surge stems from fraud fears or the lingering diplomatic chill between New Delhi and Ottawa.

According to official immigration data cited by Reuters, the 74 per cent refusal rate marks a sharp rise from 32 per cent in August 2023. Globally, the student-permit rejection rate hovered around 40 per cent in both years, while for Chinese applicants, it stood at just 24 per cent.

Why are Indian student visas facing record rejections?

Canada's clampdown on international students has hit applicants from India particularly hard, official data reveal, as what was once a preferred destination for higher education begins to lose its allure among Indian youth.

Ottawa has been steadily reducing the number of study permits since early 2025, part of a broader effort to curb temporary migration and address fraud linked to student visas.

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In August 2025 - the most recent month for which data are available - about 74% of Indian applications for study permits to Canadian post-secondary institutions were rejected, compared with 32% in August 2023, according to Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) data shared with Reuters.

By contrast, roughly 40% of global student-visa applications were refused in both years, while only 24% of Chinese applicants were turned away in August 2025.

How many Indian students are still choosing Canada?

The number of Indian applicants has also dropped dramatically - from 20,900 in August 2023 to just 4,515 in August 2025. Despite this decline, India still recorded the highest refusal rate of any country with more than 1,000 approved applicants.

According to IRCC's annual figures, about 226,000 Indian students held active study permits in Canada in 2024, down from 319,000 in 2023, marking the steepest year-on-year fall in more than a decade.

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India has long been Canada's top source of international students, but the sharp downturn in approvals signals an inflection point in the relationship between both countries' education sectors.

What changed in January 2025?

In January 2025, the Canadian government announced a second consecutive annual cap on international student permit, citing the need to preserve housing affordability and protect the“integrity” of the immigration system.

The IRCC said the tightening was“temporary but necessary,” adding that it would prioritise applicants from“genuine academic backgrounds.”

Ottawa tightens scrutiny after fake admission letter scam

The current crackdown follows a major fraud scandal that came to light in 2023, when authorities uncovered nearly 1,550 study-permit applications linked to fake admission letters, most originating from India.

A year later, the immigration department said its enhanced verification system detected over 14,000 potentially fraudulent documents globally.

“Canada has implemented enhanced verification for international students and has increased its financial requirements for applicants,” a department spokesperson said.

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The Indian Embassy in Ottawa said the rising rejection rate had“come to its attention” but stressed that issuing study permits was Canada's prerogative.

“However, we would like to emphasise that some of the best quality students available in the world are from India, and Canadian institutions have in the past greatly benefited from the talent and academic excellence of these students,” the embassy said in a statement.

How does the Khalistan factor strain bilateral ties?

The spike in visa refusals comes as Canada and India attempt to mend relations after more than a year of political friction.

Former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau alleged in 2023 that India was involved in the killing of a Sikh separatist leader in Surrey, British Columbia - a claim that New Delhi vehemently denied. The episode soured diplomatic relations and fuelled scrutiny of Indian diaspora activities in Canada, particularly among Sikh advocacy groups.

Although Trudeau announced his decision to step down in January 2025 under pressure from within his party, the political fallout appears to have outlasted his tenure.

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Canada's Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand told Reuters during her October 2025 visit to India that Ottawa remained committed to welcoming Indian students but must“protect the integrity of the immigration system.”

“Canada's government is concerned about the integrity of its immigration system but wants to continue having Indian students in Canada,” Anand said.

What are Canadian universities saying about the drop in Indian enrolments?

Several leading Canadian universities report steep declines in Indian enrolments.

At the University of Waterloo, home to the country's largest engineering faculty, the number of Indian students entering undergraduate and postgraduate programmes has fallen by nearly two-thirds over the past four years.

“We pride ourselves on being an international university,” said Ian VanderBurgh, associate vice-president for strategic enrolment management.“The drop was largely due to a government cap on foreign student visas and has altered the composition of the student body.”

The University of Regina and University of Saskatchewan have seen similar declines.

Are Indian students reconsidering Canada?

People working with aspiring international students say they are witnessing a higher level of scrutiny in visa processing.

Michael Pietrocarlo of Border Pass, a firm that assists with Canadian visa applications, said his team now coaches applicants to demonstrate eligibility“beyond what's required on paper.”

“It's not enough just to say, 'Here are some bank statements,'” he explained.“They may have to go the extra mile and say, 'Here's where the money came from.'”

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For many prospective students, the Canada dream appears to be dimming.

Jaspreet Singh, founder of the International Sikh Students Association, recalled to Reuters arriving in Canada in 2015 when government posters encouraged newcomers to“Study, work, stay.”

“That attitude has soured,” he said.“They are happy they didn't come.”

A crossroads for Canada–India academic ties

As Canada's tightening policies intersect with diplomatic mistrust, analysts say the country risks alienating one of its largest and most academically dynamic student communities.

Whether driven more by the fear of fraud or by a rift in bilateral trust, the 74% rejection rate in August 2025 marks a turning point - and could redefine how Indian students view Canada's promise of opportunity.

Key Takeaways

• The rejection rate for Indian student visas in Canada has skyrocketed, signaling a potential shift in educational opportunities.
• Fraud concerns and diplomatic tensions between India and Canada are key factors affecting visa approvals.
• The tightening of visa policies may alienate a significant student demographic, reshaping Canada's education landscape.

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