(MENAFN- UkrinForm) This assessment was shared in a comment to Ukrinform by Fredrik Löjdquist, Director of the Stockholm Center for Eastern European Studies (SCEEUS) at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs.

“I would say that, probably, in the foreseeable future, a new Cold War type situation is the best-case scenario,” Löjdquist said.

He admitted that such a statement might sound pessimistic, but it reflects reality - one shaped by the absence of strategic vision, Europe's inertia, and its failure so far to move toward active containment of Russia.

There is and will be no“new normalization” of relations with Russia, the expert stressed.“The Russian problem that we are facing, at least, as long as they don't lose these colonial imperialistic relations, which is a renaissance war, and they have a change of regime, and a change of political system in Russia,” explained the Director of the Stockholm Center for Eastern European Studies.

In his view, the“Russian problem” cannot be solved - it must be managed, for years or even decades.

“We have to go into countering Russia. If Russia does harm to us, we need to impose a cost on Russia. It's vital. And we need to become the subject and not object of our own destiny and future,” Löjdquist declared.

In the short term, he added, the key element is ensuring Ukraine's success and making sure that Russia is not successful. The West and Europe have the resources and potential, he emphasized - what remains in question is their will and determination.

He called for a“self-critical reflection” of what enabled Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. To some extent, Löjdquist noted, it stemmed from flawed assumptions underlying Western foreign and security policy toward Russia - following 2007 (Putin's Munich speech), 2008 (the war with Georgia), and 2014.

“We had some – sometimes implicit assumptions, sometimes explicit assumptions about our security policy and the nature of the conflicts and so on, which were proven wrong because we had this major, major escalation in February 2022,” the Swedish analyst said.

He believes the goals and ambitions of the Russian regime were misinterpreted. Many assumed it would be a local conflict and thought that by sacrificing Ukraine, it would be possible to return to the previous status quo.

“But that is a misunderstanding of the laws. And unless we learn these lessons from how we thought about, what is escalating and de-escalating, and Russia's intentions and what this conflict is about, we will still be looking for wrong solutions,” Löjdquist noted.

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He added that this applies especially to the U.S. approach, as some policymakers there still believe in“a land for peace deal to be had” - that we can“calm down” Putin by conceding part of Ukraine. But this is a fundamental misunderstanding of Putin's aims, which are to reshape the European security order, create a new world order, and eliminate U.S. influence, the expert emphasized.

He urged Europe to strengthen and accelerate its defense and deterrence; to shift its approach toward Ukraine by expanding military and financial support, both short- and long-term; and to increase pressure on Russia. To achieve this, he said, Europe must change its mindset - stop reacting to Russia's moves and start acting proactively, making Russia pay for every act of aggression.

“We need to shift the narrative, the framing of how we think about Ukraine and Ukraine's role in Europe's future security and defense, and deterrence capabilities. Ukraine is as much a security provider already now as they are a security consumer. Therefore, we cannot afford to lose Ukraine. Either we have the most valiant partner, one of the biggest partners in Europe, who knows how to fight Russia on our side, and the military and industrial production capabilities of all the Ukrainian legitimate flexibility and ingenuity on our side, or it will be Russia's side,” Löjdquist concluded.

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As reported, U.S. President Donald Trump has spoken in favor of freezing the war along the current line of contact. However, most experts believe that Putin would not agree to such a step, as it would mean the Kremlin's acknowledgment of the failure of the so-called“special military operation,” which has achieved none of its stated goals.

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