The federal government's group of economic experts is forecasting growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) of 1.3% for 2025 and 0.9% for 2026. These are significantly below-average figures.

The economists believe that the current second half of 2025 will be particularly weak. This is because the trade policy environment is now particularly challenging for Switzerland.

+ Tariffs dampen Swiss economic growth prospects

SECO points to the high US tariffs of 39% imposed by the Trump administration in August. Because comparatively lower tariffs apply to most of the US's other trading partners, the competitiveness of Swiss exporters on the US market has deteriorated. SECO describes this as a“heavy burden”. The ongoing uncertainty is slowing down the economy.

According to SECO, the weak growth will cause unemployment to rise. An average rate of 2.9% unemployment is still predicted for 2025 and 3.2% for 2026.

This content was published on Sep 24, 2025 United States trade policy is rattling countries worldwide and prompting them to redirect trade flows at record speed.

All of these forecasts are based on the assumption that tariffs will remain at their current level.

As for inflation, SECO expects a stable development. Prices are likely to rise by 0.2% in the current year (previously +0.1%). But it retains the inflation forecast for 2026 (+0.5%).

Translated from German with DeepL/gw