(MENAFN- UkrinForm) The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said this in a new report seen by Ukrinform.

ISW experts analyzed a statement made by Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service on October 6 claiming that the United Kingdom is planning for a group of pro-Ukrainian Russians fighting for Ukraine to conduct an attack on a Ukrainian Navy ship or a foreign civilian vessel in a European port. The FIS alleged that the saboteurs will claim they were acting on orders from Moscow and that the UK plans to equip the group with Chinese-made underwater equipment in order to blame China for supporting Russia's aggression against Ukraine.

ISW analysts note that this statement follows similar FIS false flag claims targeting European states, such as Poland, Moldova, and Serbia, and the FIS has been issuing such statements more frequently in recent weeks that constitute a new concerted pattern of activity.

"Russia appears to be conducting concerted preparations as part of the physical and psychological condition-setting phase for war contingencies. Russia has been engaged in a variety of overt and covert attacks against NATO states, such as sabotage missions, electronic warfare (EW) interference, GPS jamming, and arson, in recent years," the report states.

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Russia has dramatically increased these attacks on NATO states in recent weeks since the fall of 2025 - most notably with the drone incursions into NATO airspace.

"This pattern of organized activity suggests that Russia has entered the first phase of preparations - 'Phase 0' - to move to a higher level of war than the one Russia is currently engaged in, such as a future NATO-Russia war," ISW said.

At the same time, analysts said that it remains unclear whether the Kremlin has made a decision to launch such a higher-level war, or on what timeline it might do so.

"Russia has been undertaking longer-term plans that ISW assesses may be part of preparation for a NATO-Russia war in the future, such as the restructuring of Russia's military districts on its western border and the buildup of military bases on the border with Finland," the report added.

ISW has not observed indicators that Russia is actively preparing for an imminent conflict with NATO at this time.

Photo: AA

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