Data obtained by Trend from the latest report by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) shows that exports have grown significantly, mainly due to gold, while imports have shown more moderate growth.

Remittances also increased notably, bolstering domestic demand and strengthening external buffers. In June, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan purchased 11.1 tons of gold, marking a strategic reversal from earlier sales and reflecting a shift in reserve management policy.

Investor sentiment toward the country improved amid stronger macroeconomic fundamentals, fiscal consolidation, solid reserve levels, and the continuation of structural reforms. In line with these trends, S&P Global revised its outlook on Uzbekistan to positive in May, while Moody's affirmed its Ba3 rating with a positive outlook in June. Furthermore, Fitch upgraded Uzbekistan's long-term foreign-currency rating from BB– to BB with a stable outlook.

Nevertheless, risks remain tilted to the downside. Key challenges include potential trade tensions that could weaken external demand for non-gold exports-such as agricultural goods, textiles, and industrial products-rising fuel and transport costs stemming from regional instability and tariff increases, as well as persistent inflationary pressures that may require tighter monetary policy, potentially slowing overall economic activity.

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