The current gold price rally has delivered nearly one per cent every week or approximately 10 per cent every quarter over the past 19 months.

Gold prices hit a record high in Dubai on Wednesday as 24K rose to Dh468.25, 22K to Dh433.75, and 21K to Dh416 per gram. Spot gold touched a record high of $3,894.97 per ounce.

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy, Saxo Bank, said the current gold market rally began in earnest in March 2024, when gold finally broke out of a year-long consolidation that had kept prices contained within a wide $1,625 to $2,075 range.

“The decisive move came with the break above $2,075 in early March last year, but the foundations had already been laid in the prior year, as rising central bank demand underpinned the market at a time when asset managers were liquidating positions in response to sharply higher US funding costs. Those costs surged as the Federal Reserve intensified its fight against post-pandemic inflation,” said Hansen.“Since that breakout, gold has rallied by 87 per cent, delivering an average weekly gain of 0.8 per cent, monthly gain of 3.5 per cent, and quarterly gains close to 10 per cent,” he said, adding that the strongest quarters were recorded in third quarter 2024 at 13.2 per cent, Q1 2025 at 19 per cent, and Q3 2025 at 16.8 per cent.

Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer, Century Financial, said the ongoing gold rally began in the fourth quarter of 2022, around October, when prices bottomed near $1,620 per ounce.

He said the average growth for gold works out to 0.56 per cent per week, 1.6 per cent per month, 4.83 per cent per quarter, and 20.16 per cent per year.“On a monthly scale, March and October consistently stand out with the strongest positive returns, while February, June, and November tend to underperform on average. Overall, the charts highlight a clear seasonal bias in gold where early-year and late-Q3 rallies drive most of the annual growth, reinforcing the average long-term returns across different time horizons,” added Valecha.

He added that the current rally is undoubtedly one of the most significant in modern times, but calling it the longest ever would be premature.

FOMO factor

Valecha confirmed that the gold rally is attracting new retail investors as well.

“The current gold rally is attracting new retail investors, and much of this participation is visible through strong inflows into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which remain a convenient and accessible vehicle for smaller investors. Retail and ETF investors often prefer direct exposure to gold itself, seen as a simpler, lower-risk asset over more volatile alternatives like mining stocks. This preference has been reflected in data showing that global gold ETF holdings have risen sharply, with total holdings up 16% this year to 96.7 million ounces, the highest since October 2022, and net purchases for 2025 reaching 13.3 million ounces,” he said.

According to the World Gold Council, physically backed gold ETFs recorded their largest semi-annual inflow since the first half of 2020, with $38 billion of inflows in the first half of 2025 alone, equivalent to 397.1 metric tonnes of gold.

Hansen pointed out that both retail and institutional investors have been increasingly drawn into gold, driven by strong momentum and the fear of missing out, combined with the prospect of lower funding costs once again making bullion attractive for large real money accounts.

Will gold hit $4,000 in 2025?

Saxo Bank's Hansen stressed that the bigger question is whether this rally signals a broader paradigm shift in how the market values tangible investments such as metals.

“If so, prices may have further to run in the coming months. In the near term, focus is on $4,000, with the risk of even higher levels – especially if Fed independence is compromised, forcing rates to levels that could trigger renewed turmoil across financial markets,” he said.

Valecha sees gold's outlook remaining constructive across the short, medium, and long term, supported by a powerful mix of macroeconomic, geopolitical, and structural factors.

“In the short term, bullion has surged nearly 47 per cent year-to-date in 2025, repeatedly setting new all-time highs above $3,883 an ounce. This strength reflects expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts, which reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, alongside a weaker US dollar and persistently high inflation. Safe-haven demand has been reinforced by heightened geopolitical risks, including renewed US tariff policies under President Trump, fiscal concerns, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Investor appetite has been evident in strong ETF inflows, with global holdings up 16% this year to 96.7 million ounces, their highest level since 2022, although they remain about 470 tonnes below the 2020 peak, leaving scope for further inflows if historical patterns repeat,” he said.

Over the medium term, structural demand anchors are expected to keep prices resilient.

In the longer term, he sees gold's trajectory will likely be shaped by structural shifts in the international monetary system; central banks' diversification away from the US dollar; China's push to establish Shanghai as a major bullion hub, and the increasing weaponisation of reserve currencies, which point to a more multipolar global framework in which gold plays a central role.

In addition, persistent geopolitical fragmentation and recurring inflationary cycles suggest gold will remain a cornerstone of both institutional portfolios and central bank reserves.

He emphasised that gold's remarkable run is unlikely to lose momentum in 2025–26, as multiple structural forces continue to align in its favour, such as the trajectory of US monetary policy, a wide spectrum of global uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, trade realignments, and election cycles in major economies, sticky inflation in many regions, swelling sovereign debt burdens among others.

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