Brazil's Financial Morning Call For October 1, 2025

(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Brazil's financial markets face a critical day shaped by domestic fiscal progress, global economic uncertainties, and regional dynamics.

The U.S. government shutdown, effective from midnight, introduces volatility risks, potentially delaying key economic data and denting global risk appetite, which could pressure Brazil's export-driven sectors.

Brazil's primary fiscal deficit narrowed to R$14.091 billion ($2.66 billion) in August, a significant improvement from R$28.135 billion ($5.31 billion), signaling fiscal discipline but highlighting structural challenges that demand deeper reforms to sustain investor confidence.

State-owned firms reported a record R$258 billion ($48.68 billion) cash deficit in 2024, raising concerns about public sector efficiency and potential cost pressures on industries.

Stable employment, with unemployment holding at 5.6%, supports consumer spending but risks fueling services inflation, complicating monetary policy.

These developments, alongside today's economic agenda, underscore Brazil's delicate balance between fiscal improvement and persistent structural risks, with markets closely watching global signals and domestic data for direction.
Economic Agenda for October 1, 2025
Brazil (10th Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$2.125 trillion)

• 9:00 AM BRT – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep): Consensus: TBD, Previous: 47.7.
  

Implication: A rise above 47.7 could signal manufacturing recovery, boosting industrial stocks like CSN Mineração, but persistent weakness may reflect global demand softness, exacerbated by U.S. shutdown risks and fiscal strains from state firms' R$258 billion ($48.68 billion) cash gap.

• 1:30 PM BRT – Foreign Exchange Flows (Sep): Consensus: TBD, Previous: -R$0.660 billion (-$0.12 billion).
  

Implication: Positive flows could strengthen the real (USD/BRL at 5.32), supporting carry trade appeal with the Selic at 15%, but negative flows may heighten volatility, especially with U.S. trade tensions and fiscal deficit concerns lingering.


United States (Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$30.50 trillion)

• 6:00 AM BRT – OPEC Meeting.
  

Implication: Potential OPEC+ output increases could depress oil prices, impacting Petrobras, while U.S. shutdown delays in data releases may amplify uncertainty for USD/BRL dynamics.

• 7:00 AM BRT – MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate: Previous: 6.34%.
  
• 7:00 AM BRT – MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW): Previous: 0.6%.
  
• 7:00 AM BRT – MBA Purchase Index: Previous: 174.5.
  
• 7:00 AM BRT – Mortgage Market Index: Previous: 388.3.
  
• 7:00 AM BRT – Mortgage Refinance Index: Previous: 1,609.8.
  

Implication: Housing market indicators could signal U.S. consumer strength, influencing Fed rate expectations and the dollar, critical for Brazil's trade surplus and commodity exports.

• 8:15 AM BRT – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep): Consensus: 52K, Previous: 54K.
  

Implication: Stronger-than-expected job growth could strengthen the dollar, pressuring USD/BRL and Brazil's export competitiveness, amid U.S. shutdown concerns.

• 9:45 AM BRT – Manufacturing PMI (Sep): Consensus: 52.0, Previous: 53.0.
  

Implication: A softer PMI could ease Fed rate hike fears, supporting risk assets like the Ibovespa, but U.S. fiscal uncertainty may cap gains.

• 10:00 AM BRT – Construction Spending (MoM) (Aug): Consensus: -0.1%, Previous: -0.1%.
  
• 10:00 AM BRT – ISM Manufacturing Employment (Sep): Previous: 43.8.
  
• 10:00 AM BRT – ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (Sep): Previous: 51.4.
  
• 10:00 AM BRT – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep): Consensus: 49.0, Previous: 48.7.
  
• 10:00 AM BRT – ISM Manufacturing Prices (Sep): Consensus: 62.7, Previous: 63.7.
  

Implication: Manufacturing data will shape Fed policy expectations, impacting the dollar and Brazil's commodity exports, with shutdown risks adding volatility.

• 10:30 AM BRT – Crude Oil Inventories: Consensus: 1.500M, Previous: -0.607M.
  
• 10:30 AM BRT – Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: Previous: 0.177M.
  
• 10:30 AM BRT – EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks: Previous: -1.685M.
  
• 10:30 AM BRT – Gasoline Inventories: Previous: -1.081M.
  

Implication: Rising inventories could further depress oil prices, weighing on Petrobras, while U.S. shutdown delays may disrupt data reliability.

• 1:00 PM BRT – Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3): Consensus: 3.9%, Previous: 3.9%.
  

Implication: Robust U.S. growth signals could strengthen the dollar, challenging Brazil's export outlook amid trade surplus tensions.

• 12:15 PM BRT – FOMC Member Barkin Speaks.
  
• 5:00 PM BRT – Fed Goolsbee Speaks.
  

Implication: Fed speeches could clarify rate cut odds, impacting USD/BRL and Brazil's carry trade appeal, with shutdown risks clouding sentiment.
Europe (Collective GDP of Key Economies: Germany, UK, France, etc.)

• 2:00 AM BRT – UK Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Sep): Actual: 0.5%, Consensus: 0.2%, Previous: -0.1%.
  
• 2:00 AM BRT – UK Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Sep): Actual: 2.2%, Consensus: 1.8%, Previous: 2.1%.
  

Implication: Stronger UK housing data could support demand for Brazil's commodity exports, though fiscal strains may limit upside.

• 2:30 AM BRT – Swiss Retail Sales (YoY) (Aug): Actual: -0.2%, Consensus: 0.5%, Previous: 0.9%.
  

Implication: Weaker Swiss demand could temper Brazil's export outlook for machinery and agribusiness.

• 3:30 AM BRT – Spanish Manufacturing PMI (Sep): Consensus: 53.8, Previous: 54.3.
  
• 3:45 AM BRT – Italian Manufacturing PMI (Sep): Consensus: 49.9, Previous: 50.4.
  
• 3:50 AM BRT – French Manufacturing PMI (Sep): Consensus: 48.1, Previous: 50.4.
  
• 3:55 AM BRT – German Manufacturing PMI (Sep): Consensus: 48.5, Previous: 49.8.
  
• 4:00 AM BRT – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Sep): Consensus: 49.5, Previous: 50.7.
  

Implication: Softer Eurozone PMIs could signal weaker demand for Brazil's steel and soy, pressuring Vale and JBS, though ECB easing hints may support commodity margins.

• 3:55 AM BRT – ECB's De Guindos Speaks.
  
• 4:30 AM BRT – UK Manufacturing PMI (Sep): Consensus: 46.2, Previous: 46.2.
  
• 5:00 AM BRT – German Buba Mauderer Speaks.
  
• 7:00 AM BRT – German Buba President Nagel Speaks.
  

Implication: ECB and Bundesbank remarks could hint at easing, potentially lifting Brazil's commodity exports, though U.S. shutdown risks may offset gains.

• 5:00 AM BRT – Eurozone Core CPI (YoY) (Sep): Consensus: 2.3%, Previous: 2.3%.
  
• 5:00 AM BRT – Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Sep): Consensus: 2.2%, Previous: 2.0%.
  

Implication: Rising inflation could tighten ECB policy, strengthening the euro and pressuring Brazil's export competitiveness.

• 5:30 AM BRT – German 10-Year Bund Auction: Previous: 2.250%.
  Implication: Higher yields could tighten global financial conditions, impacting Brazil's borrowing costs and FDI inflows.
  

Other Countries

• All Day – Holiday: China – National Day.
  
• All Day – Holiday: Hong Kong – National Day.
  

Implication: Reduced trading activity in Asia may lower commodity demand, impacting Vale and Petrobras.

• 12:30 AM BRT – India Cash Reserve Ratio: Actual: 4.00%, Consensus: 3.75%, Previous: 4.00%.
  
• 12:30 AM BRT – India Interest Rate Decision: Actual: 5.50%, Consensus: 5.50%, Previous: 5.50%.
  
• 12:30 AM BRT – India Reverse REPO Rate: Actual: 3.35%, Previous: 3.35%.
  
• 12:30 AM BRT – India RBI Financial Stability Report.
  
• 1:00 AM BRT – India Nikkei S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep): Actual: 57.7, Consensus: 58.5, Previous: 59.3.
  

Implication: Robust Indian manufacturing supports demand for Brazilian oil, benefiting Petrobras, though fiscal strains may cap gains.

• 2:30 AM BRT – Australia Commodity Prices (YoY) (Sep): Actual: -0.1%, Previous: -5.0%.
  

Implication: Stabilizing commodity prices could support Brazil's iron ore and soy exports, though U.S. shutdown risks add uncertainty.

• 5:00 AM BRT – South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Sep): Previous: 49.5.
  

Implication: A stronger PMI could boost regional demand for Brazilian machinery, though state firms' R$258 billion ($48.68 billion) cash gap risks raise costs.

• 9:30 AM BRT – Canada Manufacturing PMI (Sep): Previous: 48.3.
  

Implication: Weaker Canadian manufacturing could soften demand for Brazil's exports, impacting industrial firms.

• 7:00 PM BRT – South Korea CPI (YoY) (Sep): Consensus: 2.0%, Previous: 1.7%.
  

Implication: Higher Korean inflation could strengthen demand for Brazil's commodities, supporting Vale and CSN Mineração.

• 9:50 PM BRT – Japan Foreign Bonds Buying: Previous: 817.2B.
  
• 9:50 PM BRT – Japan Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks: Previous: -1,747.5B.
  

Implication: Strong Japanese investment flows could sustain demand for Brazilian iron ore, though weaker flows may pressure Vale.

Why These Events Matter: Brazil's Manufacturing PMI and Foreign Exchange Flows will gauge industrial health and capital flow stability, critical for sustaining the real at 5.32/USD and FDI inflows amid a R$258 billion ($48.68 billion) state firm cash gap.

U.S. data, including ADP employment and ISM Manufacturing PMI, could shift Fed rate expectations, impacting the dollar and Brazil's trade surplus dynamics, especially with the U.S. shutdown delaying key reports.

Eurozone inflation and PMI data will influence commodity demand, while stable unemployment at 5.6% supports consumption but risks inflation, complicating Selic decisions.

Fiscal improvements (August deficit at R$14.091 billion [$2.66 billion]) bolster market sentiment, but structural fiscal challenges and state firm inefficiencies remain critical tests for investor confidence.
Brazil's Markets Yesterday
Brazil's Ibovespa edged down 0.07% to 146,237 on September 30, 2025, after touching an intraday record of 147,578, driven by robust foreign inflows (R$4.8 billion [$0.91 billion] in September) and a high Selic rate (15%) attracting yield-seeking investors.

The real held steady at 5.32 per dollar, supported by a softer dollar and Brazil's carry trade appeal, despite U.S. shutdown risks denting sentiment.

Turnover moderated as markets braced for U.S. fiscal uncertainty and potential OPEC+ output hikes pressuring oil. Braskem slumped 5.8% to R$6.27 ($1.18) after further downgrade fears, reflecting debt and cash flow concerns.

CSN Mineração gained 3.2% to R$5.70 ($1.08) on commodity optimism, while Banco do Brasil rose on fiscal discipline signals. Support lies at 145,000, with resistance at 147,578, and RSI neutral amid persistent FDI inflows and fiscal narrowing to R$14.091 billion ($2.66 billion).

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U.S. Markets Yesterday
The S&P 500 rose 0.41% to 6,688.46, the Dow hit a record close, up 0.18% to 46,397.89, and the Nasdaq gained 0.31% to 22,660.01 on September 30, 2025.

Quarter-end flows supported equities, despite U.S. government shutdown risks clouding sentiment. The 10-year Treasury yield stabilized near 4.15%, while oil prices wavered on OPEC+ output hike speculation.

Markets focused on upcoming ADP and ISM data, with shutdown delays threatening report timeliness. A softer dollar aided risk assets, supporting Brazil's real and commodity exporters like Petrobras and Vale.

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Mexico's Market Yesterday
Mexico's S&P/BMV IPC gained 0.3% to 62,659.13 on September 30, 2025, supported by a softer dollar and Banxico 's steady rates. The peso held at 18.40 per dollar, bolstered by cautious monetary policy and U.S. shutdown jitters.

Grupo Mexico (+2.1%) and Cemex (+1.8%) led gains, while retail lagged. RSI at 61 suggests bullish momentum, with support at 62,000 and resistance at 62,800, as Brazil-Mexico trade stability counters U.S. fiscal uncertainty.

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Argentina's Market Yesterday
The S&P Merval rose 0.2% to 1,780,263 points on September 30, 2025, with the official USD/ARS at 1,380. Loma Negra (+2.0%) gained, while Edenor (-1.5%) lagged.

The peso gap widened slightly, reflecting fiscal pressures. RSI at 44 and support at 1,750,000 signal consolidation, as U.S. shutdown risks and Brazil's fiscal progress limit Argentina's upside.

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Colombia's Market Yesterday
The COLCAP index climbed 0.5% to 1,892.66 points on September 30, 2025, led by Ecopetrol (+1.5%) and Cementos Argos (+1.0%).

The peso strengthened to 3,850 per dollar, up 4.8% monthly on oil revenues. RSI at 62 and support at 1,870 suggest upside to 1,900, bolstered by Brazil's commodity export resilience, though U.S. shutdown risks add caution.

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Chile's Market Yesterday
The IPSA dipped 0.3% to 8,932.40 points on September 30, 2025, pressured by dollar demand. The peso weakened to 970 per dollar. SQM (+0.5%) gained on lithium, while Falabella (-1.0%) lagged.

RSI at 48 and support at 8,850 signal consolidation, with Brazil's fiscal narrowing supporting regional sentiment, tempered by U.S. shutdown uncertainties.

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Commodities
Brazilian Real
The Brazilian real stabilized at 5.32 per dollar on September 30, 2025, supported by a softer U.S. dollar and Brazil's high Selic rate (15%), despite U.S. shutdown risks.

The USD/BRL ranged 5.28-5.36, with RSI at 45 neutral. Foreign inflows (R$4.8 billion [$0.91 billion] in September) and a narrower fiscal deficit (R$14.091 billion [$2.66 billion]) bolster stability, but U.S. fiscal uncertainty and state firms' R$258 billion ($48.68 billion) cash gap add volatility risks.

Forecasts see year-end USD/BRL at 5.25 if fiscal data strengthens, with today's Foreign Exchange Flows and U.S. ADP data pivotal.

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Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin tested $115,000 on September 30, 2025, with $100 million in spot ETF inflows signaling investor interest. Ethereum rose 2.5% to $4,096, Solana gained 2.8% to $205.40, and XRP advanced 2.0% to $2.87.

Brazil's fintech sector eyes adoption, but high Selic rates and U.S. shutdown concerns mute retail demand. RSI neutral, with U.S. ADP and ISM data critical for sentiment amid fiscal discipline signals.

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Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Brazil's commodity-driven economy benefits from robust foreign inflows (R$4.8 billion [$0.91 billion] in September) and a stable real at 5.32/USD, but faces risks from U.S. shutdown uncertainties delaying key data and potential OPEC+ output hikes pressuring oil prices.

The fiscal deficit narrowed to R$14.091 billion ($2.66 billion) in August, signaling discipline, but state-owned firms' R$258 billion ($48.68 billion) cash gap raises efficiency concerns, potentially increasing industrial costs.

Unemployment at 5.6% supports consumption but fuels inflation risks, keeping Selic at 15%. Today's Manufacturing PMI (9:00 AM BRT) and Foreign Exchange Flows (1:30 PM BRT), alongside U.S. ADP and ISM data, will shape energy, retail, and export outlooks, with U.S. fiscal risks and state firm challenges adding volatility.

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Key Developments
Fiscal Deficit Narrows: August's primary deficit fell to R$14.091 billion ($2.66 billion) from R$28.135 billion ($5.31 billion), boosting market sentiment but highlighting structural reform needs.

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State Firms' Cash Gap: A record R$258 billion ($48.68 billion) deficit in 2024 raises concerns about public sector efficiency, potentially increasing costs for industries like CSN Mineração.

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Stable Employment: Unemployment at 5.6% supports consumer spending but risks inflation, complicating Selic decisions and impacting retail.

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Braskem's Downgrade: Braskem's shares fell 5.8% to R$6.27 ($1.18) on downgrade fears, reflecting debt and cash flow pressures.

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U.S. Shutdown Risks: The U.S. government shutdown could delay key data, denting risk appetite and pressuring Brazil's export sectors like Petrobras and Vale.

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