Southwest Monsoon Withdrawal Delayed, Expect Above-Normal Rain In Post-Monsoon In October-December:IMD

(MENAFN- Live Mint) New Delhi: The south-west monsoon season, which recorded an 8% surplus in rainfall for June-September, is experiencing a delayed withdrawal, India Meteorological Department (IMD) chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said. Looking ahead, the seasonal rainfall during October to December (OND) over south peninsular India is most likely to be above normal (greater than 112% of the Long Period Average (LPA)).

The southwest monsoon advanced over the South Andaman Sea and Nicobar Islands on 13 May, nearly nine days ahead of the normal schedule. It arrived in Kerala on 24 May, ahead of the usual onset date of 1 June, and covered the entire country by 29 June, earlier than the normal date of 8 July.

"The monsoon withdrawal began from west Rajasthan on 14 September, advancing by 3 days. However, it is currently stalled due to low pressure over certain parts of the country," said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, IMD director general of meteorology, during a virtual press conference.

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Typically, the monsoon begins its withdrawal on 17 September and exits the country by 15 October.

According to the IMD, a well-marked low-pressure area is present over the Gulf of Kutch and its surrounding areas. It is likely to move northwestwards across Kutch and nearby areas during the next 12 hours and emerge into the northeast Arabian Sea off the north Gujarat coast. There is a possibility of its intensification into a depression around the time of emergence into the northeast Arabian Sea and west-southwestward movement thereafter towards the northwest Arabian Sea.

Simultaneously, an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the east-central Bay of Bengal is likely to spawn another low-pressure system, which may develop into a depression by 2 October.

Withdrawal delay

Despite the stalled withdrawal, the 2025 monsoon season delivered 937.2 mm of rainfall-108% of the long period average of 868.6 mm. This ranks as the fifth-highest since 2001 and 38th 38th-highest since 1901. Regional rainfall varied widely: Northwest India saw 127% of its LPA, while East and Northeast India received only 80%, marking the second lowest since 1901.

The good rainfall in most parts of the country, reflected in an increase in kharif sowing. According to official data, India's crop sowing area reached 111 million hectares as of 12 September, exceeding the normal area of 109.7 million hectares. Additionally, the paddy area reached 43.85 million hectares, up 1.97% from the previous year. Similarly, the maize area increased by 12.5% to reach 9.48 million hectares.

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Looking ahead, the IMD stated that seasonal rainfall from October to December over South Peninsular India is most likely to be above normal (greater than 112% of the Long Period Average). During the period, most parts of the country are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, except for many parts of northwest India, some parts of extreme southern peninsular India, and northeast India, where rainfall is likely to be below-normal. The LPA of rainfall over South Peninsular India during the post-monsoon season, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is approximately 334.13mm.

"It may be noted that while above-normal rainfall can benefit agriculture and water resources, it also brings heightened risks, including flooding, transport disruptions, public health concerns, and ecological impacts," said a senior IMD official. According to IMD, given these potential hazards, anticipatory actions may be initiated for the season.

Seasonal outlook

Also, the monthly rainfall over the country as a whole during October is likely to be above normal or greater than 115% of LPA. In October, most parts of the country are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall. However, some areas in Northwest India, the extreme south of peninsular India, and isolated pockets in Northeast India may experience below-normal rainfall.

October is also expected to be wetter than usual, with monthly rainfall likely to exceed 115% of LPA. Climate models suggest neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (Enso) conditions currently, but there is an increased likelihood of La Niña developing during the post-monsoon season.

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