EUR/USD Monthly Forecast: October 2025 (Chart)

(MENAFN- Daily Forex)

• Day traders of the EUR/USD who enjoy choppy conditions have certainly gotten their money's worth the past two months.
• Volatility across Forex for speculators has been punishing if a steady trend has been pursued.
• The EUR/USD consistently the past handful of weeks has delivered price velocity and reversals.
• As of this writing the EUR/USD is near the 1.17250 ratio with quick fluctuations, on the 17th of September the currency pair was above 1.19100 momentarily. Quick hitting traders remain a solid recipe for speculators.

While the U.S Fed delivered its expected interest rate cut on the 17th of September and suggested another cut will happen in late October, there has been additional outside influences causing volatility in Forex and the EUR/USD. The prospect of a U.S government shutdown developing in the middle of this week as October gets started is causing massive headwinds. Caution is certainly being seen by financial institutions the past few days in the EUR/USD. Traders need to expect plenty of volatility in the month of October Highs a Barometer

There is no denying financial institutions clearly leaned heavily into buying the EUR/USD going into the middle of September and the currency pair reached an apex upon the interest rate cut from the Fed. However, because the move was widely anticipated the reversal lower after speculative buying ran out of power should have been expected too. The EUR/USD was trading near the 1.18200 ratio on the 23rd of September, that is nearly one week ago.

Safe haven strategies in Forex have taken hold. If the U.S government shutdown does come into force, financial institutions fear that the Democrats will want to try an outmaneuver President Trump. At some point for the betterment of the U.S, politics should be put to the side, but it appears rhetoric and threats are rather loud this time around. Meaning if the government does shut down in the U.S going into this weekend, it could cause massive reactions in the financial markets – Forex traders should be ready for complex volatility. A USD safe haven centric move could prove to be short lived, but it could produce significant movement and EUR/USD speculators need to be ready and Contradictory Thinking

The highs seen in the EUR/USD made in mid-September are likely a looking glass into the thoughts of financial institutions regarding their beliefs that the currency pair should be higher.

• However it is also obvious that caution is still being practiced.
• The Fed is expected to cut interest rates again in late October, and recent U.S economic data has been solid via growth, and inflation has proven rather tranquil, but the shutdown is casting a shadow.
• Until the White House and Congress can agree to a spending bill, financial institutions will practice caution.
• The entire month of October has sure fire dangers which will cause big movements in the EUR/USD. The government shutdown potential. The U.S jobs numbers this Friday. U.S economic data via inflation in October. And then the Fed late in October.

EURUSD Chart by TradingViewEUR/USD Outlook for October 2025:

Speculative price range for EUR/USD is 1.16040 to 1.19300

The EUR/USD under 1.17000 seems absurd on the surface, but a low of nearly 1.16500 was seen this past Thursday. Perhaps another solid selloff would spark reversals higher based on optimism winning out regarding outlooks, but traders need to remain careful. If the Democrats choose to play hardball this week and into next without an agreement, the EUR/USD will be choppy and volatile throughout the political upheavals.

Looking for upside to develop from the lower levels being demonstrated in the EUR/USD now and particularly if more selling happens feels logical. But day traders who are trying to time the exact moment that solid buying momentum will erupt will be playing with fire over the near-term. The Democrats have not had a political victory in quite a while and they would certainly like to point out to their backers that they still have a semblance of power in the Congress and can get things done. However, if the U.S government shutdown does take place and it gets nasty, instead of a clear working agreement being accomplished sooner rather than later, financial institutions will punish the markets and this could cause the EUR/USD to remain in lower vicinities.

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