Gold Analysis 30/09: Index Nears Test Of $4,000 (Chart)

(MENAFN- Daily Forex) Today's Gold Analysis Overview:

• The overall of Gold Trend: Strongly Bullish
• Today's Gold Support Points: $3,825 – $3,800 – $3,760 Per Ounce.
• Today's Gold Resistance Points: $3,880 – $3,930 – $4,000 Per Ounce.

Today's Gold Trading Signals:

• Sell gold from the resistance level of $3,920, with a target of $3,700 and a stop loss of $3,980.
• Buy gold from the support level of $3,780, with a target of $3,900 and a stop loss of $3,740.

Technical Analysis of Gold Price (XAU/USD) Today:

By the close of trading in September 2025, gold prices had surged to a new all-time high, reaching the $3,870 per ounce resistance level and recording their largest monthly gain in 14 years. This surge was driven by investors flocking to safe-haven assets amid escalating fears of a partial US government shutdown and expectations of further US interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Yesterday, negotiations between US President Trump and congressional leaders concluded without an agreement on short-term funding, increasing the probability of a partial government shutdown as current funding expires at midnight Tuesday. Should no deal be reached, the partial shutdown will begin on Wednesday, potentially delaying the release of crucial economic data, including the US September employment report.

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At the same time, other factors have added to the market's volatility, as new US tariffs on heavy trucks, patented pharmaceuticals, and other goods are set to take effect on Wednesday. Recent US economic data has also reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates at its two remaining meetings this year.

According to gold trading platforms, gold prices have gained more than 11% so far in September and are up more than 16% during the quarter US Government Shutdown May Impact Employment Data

The US Department of Labor and the Department of Commerce have warned that a partial government shutdown would halt the release of key economic data, according to Reuters. This includes the crucial US September employment report, which is vital for Federal Reserve decision-making, in addition to August data on construction spending and international trade. Funding ends at midnight Tuesday unless Congress reaches a last-minute agreement.

Consequently, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will suspend most of their operations, although the BLS will still release the August metropolitan employment report on Wednesday. The release of construction and industry data scheduled for this week by the Census Bureau will be suspended, and a prolonged shutdown could delay the release of the trade report on October 7 and the GDP estimate on October 30. The BLS warned that further delays could affect the release of other data Price Forecasts for the Coming Days

According to gold analyst forecasts, as previously mentioned, gold investors are not deterred by technical indicators reaching strong overbought levels after the continuous strong gains. Instead, they are focused on monitoring factors that sustain the strength of the gold market, such as expanding global trade and geopolitical tensions, threats to the future policies of the US Federal Reserve, and increased gold bullion purchases by central banks Tips:

We advise waiting for a strong retracement in the gold price index to consider buying again, rather than risking a purchase at its all-time highs. In general, do not take risks, no matter how strong the trading opportunities and trades may seem.

EURUSD Chart by TradingView

Amid these factors, the attention of the bulls is now focused on the historic psychological resistance level of $4,000 per ounce. This could occur if the gold price index breaks through the $3,890 and $3,930 resistance levels in the coming days. Currently, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is above a reading of 80, having breached the overbought line by a full 10 points. The MACD indicator is not far behind, having significantly surpassed the steep overbought line.

In general, gold prices are still stronger and may remain so for some time, driven by the decline in the value of the US dollar and growing expectations of a US interest rate cut. Recently, data released last Friday showed that US inflation data (PCE) was in line with expectations, strengthening the chances that the Federal Reserve will continue to ease monetary policy later this year. The market currently indicates a 90% probability of an interest rate cut in October, and a 65% probability of an additional cut in December.

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