TCS Hovers Near 52-Week Low: SEBI Analyst Warns Of Downside Below ₹2,890

Shares of Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) rose marginally on Tuesday even as the IT services giant faced twin headwinds, including a workforce reduction of about 12,200 employees and the U.S. administration's new $100,000 H-1B visa fee that could raise costs for major Indian IT exporters. Over the past month, the IT major has declined 7%, hovering near its 52-week low.  

Analyst View

SEBI-registered analyst Varunkumar Patel said the new U.S. visa fee, which took effect on September 21, presents a one-time cost shock and a structural margin risk for companies like TCS that heavily rely on H-1B employees. 

He said the policy change adds pressure to the company's execution model and may affect client negotiations in the near term.

Technical Outlook

Patel highlighted that TCS has seen a multi-day decline, trading near ₹2,900, and warned that the stock remains technically weak.

 He identified ₹2,890–₹2,920 as a crucial support zone, which is close to its 52-week low, and ₹3,200–₹3,600 as the key resistance range.

He added that momentum indicators such as the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) remain below the zero line, and the relative strength index (RSI) shows limited strength. A close below ₹2,890 could open the way for further downside, while a move above ₹3,200 on strong volume would suggest a short-covering rally.

Patel said that while the long-term impact of the visa policy could be modest, with Crisil projecting a 10–20 basis point hit to margins, traders should avoid fresh long positions until there's confirmation of trend reversal.

What Is The Retail Mood?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment was 'neutral' amid 'normal' message volume.

TCS' stock has declined 29.3% so far in 2025.

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