Disorderly Transition Is Pushing Paris Agreement Climate Goals Beyond Reach: KPMG's John Mccalla-Leacy

(MENAFN- Live Mint)

NEW DELHI : Although climate action has gained momentum, the world is witnessing a disorderly energy transition, with countries pursuing different paths and trajectories, said John McCalla-Leacy, the head of global environmental, social, and governance (ESG) at KPMG International.

As a result, the target to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100 is unlikely to be met, he said in an interview.

“Are we progressing on the ground? Absolutely! If you probably have the most pessimistic view...you could even go as high as 3 to 4 degrees (Celsius). That's the most pessimistic world, and that already shows we have made progress. But also, we recognize that there's more work that needs to be done. Are we on track to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees? No, we're not. More work needs to be done," he said.

Paris Agreement at 10

To be sure, 2025 marks the 10-year anniversary of the Paris Agreement.

“What we're seeing now is more akin to what we call a disorderly transition. We do not have the level of agreement that we would ideally wish for across governments, and we're seeing this...in terms of different standards. Countries have probably taken a slightly different path in terms of whether they're accelerating, slowing down, or relaxing on the (climate) agenda. So, clearly, we've moved forward. That's absolutely unquestionable, but we have got a lot to do."

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The Paris Agreement is an international treaty on climate change adopted by 195 parties at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris, France, on 12 December 2015. It entered into force on 4 November 2016. Its overarching goal is to hold“the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels" and pursue efforts“to limit the temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels".

UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change indicates that crossing the 1.5°C threshold risks unleashing far severe weather changes, including more frequent and severe droughts, heatwaves, and rainfall.

He, however, was hopeful that, despite obstacles such as the US proposing to withdraw from the accord, the energy transition journey would continue. Observing that changes are not as smooth as expected, he said:“I would position that the change that we're going through right now is probably the most complex and biggest change we've ever seen on this planet."

John said surveys have shown that over 60% of global chief executives have maintained the climate goals set by their organizations; however, they are adapting to the changes in the climate action trajectory being brought about by a change in the political narrative of late.

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“We believe it is very important to read beyond the headlines. Now, from our own surveys, over 60% of CEOs are maintaining the same climate goals. But they're adapting their narrative. Why they are doing that is because they recognize that, whilst political terms can come and go, maybe in a four-year period...what they're looking at is much more long-term."

He added the estimated cost for the global transition during 2020 to 2050 would be around $275 trillion, which in its entirety would be a complex task to raise, while if it is looked at as individual projects that require a few hundred thousand dollars or a million dollars, then the job at hand may be achieved.

Speaking of investments in the green energy space , he said:“Is it (finance) flowing? Yes, $2 trillion in renewable energy last year. Is it enough? No. So, the increase in the uptake is material. You can see this. However, it needs to accelerate and grow much faster. And the $275 trillion is the overall cost, which has been estimated, and we're nowhere near that."

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