Cocoa Prices Drop Over 40 Percent Since Late 2024

(MENAFN) Cocoa prices have plunged more than 40% globally since late 2024, slipping below $7,000 per ton amid easing drought concerns and forecasts of increased West African harvests. Market watchers attribute the steep decline to rising supply estimates and weakening demand pressures.

Improved rainfall in West Africa has eased fears of drought, a key factor behind the recent price drop. The surge in cocoa tree blossoms has further weighed on prices, with analysts expecting an overall downward trend despite potential short-term rebounds.

High cocoa prices combined with US tariffs are expected to dampen chocolate consumption, adding to the market strain. Production in the upcoming season is projected to rise, continuing the pressure on prices.

Cocoa hit a record peak of $12,931 per ton last year, driven by supply anxieties. Poor weather in West Africa and declining global stockpiles propelled prices upward, with weak output from Ivory Coast and Ghana—a region accounting for 60% of West Africa’s production—playing a pivotal role.

Ivorian exporters have recently rejected cocoa beans citing poor quality, threatening to tighten global supplies further. The reduced harvest in Ivory Coast contributed to last year’s price surge.

Large cocoa processors in Ivory Coast and Ghana have cut or halted production due to soaring seed costs. Alongside adverse weather patterns, plant diseases such as the Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus Disease (CSSVD) have worsened supply constraints.

Zafer Ergezen, a futures and commodity markets expert, told media: “Cocoa prices rose significantly last year and the first half of this year due to a decline in West African cocoa harvests, as it accounts for 70% of global cocoa production.”

He added, “The Ivory Coast and Ghana make up 60% of the production in West Africa, so the infestation of cocoa trees in this region led to significant rises in price, for instance.”

Looking ahead, Ergezen said, “Cocoa yields are expected to rise this year compared to last year, which would translate to a rise in supply.”

“Rising cocoa yields particularly put pressure on prices,” he concluded. “I expect the downward trend will continue so the sales pressure will keep up in the coming period.”

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